MLB Odds & Betting Analysis On The Nationals vs Phillies Game 3

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, June 1, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 1, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies play the 3rd game of their early week set. Now we turn our attention to today’s starting pitchers and MLB Odds.

Game 3 of the series is set for a 7:05 ET first pitch. This is clearly a battle of two teams going opposite directions with major YTD and current form advantages for Washington, along with a definitive starting pitching mismatch and run line support by MLB Odds. In the following analysis, you will see the value of this MLB Pick.

In yesterday’s analysis of this matchup, a 5-1 money line winner on Washington, I pointed out the divergent differences in the batting OPS and bullpen OPS numbers. At the start of the series, the Washington OPS batting edge was .729 to .653 for Philly (the 28th worst in all of MLB). For the bullpen, Washington has the No. 2 OPS at .612 compared to the .712 OPS for the Phillies.

Current form is also clearly in favor of Washington, as is team history! The Phillies had things break perfectly for them in a fairytale beginning. Now, however, they are riding a 5-game losing streak on the heels of a nosedive that I anticipated some three weeks ago. Even though the dimensions of their home park are conducive to scoring, the Phillies average just 2.8 RPG at home while hitting just 13 homers. From a series perspective, Washington has now gone 10-2 at this site against the home-standing Phillies.

In the course of this season, Scherzer has a 4.05 ERA because he has been troubled by the long ball and occasional wildness. No such issues exist against his opponent, whom he has historically dominated. In 7 recent outings against the Phillies, Scherzer is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA. In 21 recent innings from this mound, Scherzer has allowed just 4 runs with 22 Ks. Today’s mound opponent is nowhere near his class. For the year, Morgan is 1-3 with a 6.67 ERA.

Though he has pitched a couple of decent outings against Atlanta, when not facing the Braves, he has worked 16 2/3 IP, allowing 27 hits with a 10.26 ERA. We have no issue laying the runs to moderate this bloated price. 13 of 17 Washington road wins have been by 2 or more runs, while 20 of 26 of all Philly losses have been by 2 or more runs. 

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992654, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick:  Nationals -220
Best Line Offered:  at YouWager

comment here