MLB Odds: Best Over/Under Picks For Wednesday

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 11:18 AM GMT

We are in the third day of the 2016 baseball season, and thus generally on teams' third-best starting pitcher. Here are my top three totals MLB picks with odds. 

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers (Total Of 9 On MLB odds)
This has the highest total of any game on the board and it's the Seattle debut of lefty Wade Miley. He was acquired from Boston in December for reliever Carson Smith and starting pitcher Roenis Elias. The Sox had traded for Miley from Arizona the offseason previous. He disappointed last year in the tougher American League, going 11-11 with a 4.46 ERA.

Once Boston signed David Price this winter, it apparently made Miley expendable. New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto was very familiar with Miley as Dipoto was scouting director for the Diamondbacks when they drafted him in 2008. Miley faced Texas twice last year and was 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 11.0 innings. He allowed 16 hits but no homers and struck out nine.

Prince Fielder is 2-for-7 career off Miley with a double. Robinson Chirinos is 2-for-5 with a double, homer and three RBIs. Colby Lewis gets the call for Texas. He had a great 17-9 record last year despite a not great 4.66 ERA. He allowed 211 hits and 26 home runs in a career-best 204.2 innings. Only three pitchers received more run support than the 5.8 runs per start Lewis got from the Rangers. He was 0-3 with a 3.95 ERA in two starts against Seattle. Kyle Seager is a career .370 hitter off him with two homers and seven RBIs in 27 at-bats. Robinson Cano is 7-for-18 off him.

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Free MLB Pick:'Over.' It has hit in 10 of Seattle's past 14 road games vs. right-handed starters. The 'over' is 4-0 in Lewis' past four starts
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (7.5 In MLB Betting)
Will this be the final season in Washington for former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg? Most everyone believes so as he's going to be a free agent next winter and command likely north of $200 million on the market. And his agent is Scott Boras, who always takes his guys to the market. Strasburg can still be as nasty as anyone in the majors, if perhaps he hasn't quite lived up to expectations. He was 11-7 with a 3.46 ERA in just 23 starts last year. He spent a while on the disabled list but was a different pitcher after returning with a 1.76 ERA and 112 strikeouts over his final 13 starts. That's the guy everyone expects.

Strasburg faced the Braves twice and didn't allow a run over 11.0 innings while striking out 13. One Brave his him well: Freddie Freeman is 12-for-28 with three homers and nine RBIs career. Atlanta starts a guy who really shouldn't be starting in the majors any longer in journeyman Bud Norris. He was ghastly 3-11 with a 6.72 ERA last year with Baltimore and San Diego. He won't be in that rotation all year; the Braves have a lot of good young pitching coming. Norris allowed two runs in 1.2 innings last year vs. Washington.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under.' True, Norris could give up seven runs himself, but Strasburg probably blanks the Braves. The 'under' is 6-0 in Strasburg's past six road starts. It is 12-3-1 in Atlanta's past 16 at home.
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres (7 For MLB picks)
It's an anticipated debut for Dodgers right-hander Kenta Maeda. He was 97-67 with a 2.39 ERA in eight seasons in Japan's top league. Last year, he was 15-8 with a 2.09 ERA. What does he profile as? Not as a dominant No. 1 guy like countryman Yu Darvish or even as good as former Dodger Hideo Nomo. More like a solid No. 4-type starter. The Dodgers need him to be good right away because they are so injury-ravaged in the rotation. Maeda had a nice spring with a 3.35 ERA in 23.0 innings.

Obviously the Padres have never faced the guy in a regular-season game so that should be an advantage. San Diego counters with Andrew Cashner. He's got great stuff but was a vastly disappointing 6-16 with a 4.34 ERA last year. He did get virtually no run support. Cashner does have a career 2.51 ERA in April. He faced the Dodgers four times in 2015 and was 0-3 despite a pretty good 3.38 ERA. Carl Crawford is 9-for-26 career off with a homer but also 10 strikeouts. Adrian Gonzalez is 11-for-32 with four homers and six RBIs. Yasiel Puig is just 2-for-19.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in eight of Cashner's past 10 vs. the Dodgers and six straight at home. 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle