MLB O/U Picks of the Day: Pitching Trends to Play with this Friday

Ross Benjamin

Friday, October 2, 2015 3:17 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 2, 2015 3:17 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional shares his two top MLB total picks on Friday’s card. Go inside to find out what those selections are and why he’s wagering on them.

Cardinals (Garcia) vs. Braves (Teheran) 7:10 PM ET
Southpaw Jaime Garcia has seen just six of his nineteen starts this season go over the total. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball regarding the category of home runs per innings pitched. Garcia has allowed just 5 home runs in 125 2/3 innings this year, and that equates to 1 per 25.1 innings pitched. That’s an off the charts ratio for a starting pitcher, and especially for one with this large of a sample size. The Cardinals hurler has also been superb in his last two starts overall, allowing a combined 2 earned runs on 12 hits while walking 2 during 15.0 innings of work.

Julio Teheran has been outstanding during his previous five starts, evidenced by his sparkling 1.69 ERA in those outings. Teheran has also pitched much better at home this year than on the road. Atlanta has scored 2 runs or less in four of the last five, and ten of their previous fourteen games. The Braves are coming off a 3-0 loss to Washington on Thursday, and they’ve gone 23-6 (79.3%) under the total since 2014 following a shutout loss. They’ve also gone 24-12 (66.7%) under the total this year when facing a southpaw starting pitcher, and averaged a paltry 2.6 runs per game.

I like this game to be a very low scoring affair, and one of my MLB picks on Friday will be indicative of that prediction. Current MLB odds at 5Dimes offers the best combination of number and price for this wager.

MLB Pick: Cardinals and Braves Under 7 (-122) at 5Dimes

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Astros (Keuchel) vs. Diamondbacks (De La Rosa) 9:40
Dallas Keuchel will be seeking his 20th win of the season tonight. Despite that extra motivation, he’s pitched significantly better at home this season than on the road. The Astros are second in all of baseball with 223 home runs this year. They’ll be facing a starting pitcher (De La Rosa) tonight that’s allowed 31 home runs in 29 starts in 2015. Houston has gone 9-1 over the total on the road this year when facing a starting pitcher averaging 1.0 or more home runs allowed per start.

Rubby De La Rosa has been horrible during his last three home starts, compiling a 9.69 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and surrendered 5 home runs in only 13.0 innings.

MLB Pick: Astros and Diamondbacks Over 8 (-115) at YouWager

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