MLB O/U Picks: Poor Pitching Prompting 'Over' the Total Plays

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 9, 2015 3:01 PM GMT

Our MLB professional shares his two top totals picks of the day. Read this insightful betting preview article which touches upon totals in games between the Orioles/Yankees & Twins/Royals.

Orioles (Jimenez) vs. Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 PM ET
Ubaldo Jimenez has gone 4-1 over the total during his last five starts, and he’s certainly been a major contributor to those high scoring games. During those outings he’s posted a large 6.33 ERA and an atrocious 1.93 WHIP.

C.C. Sabathia has struggled during the vast majority of his starts in 2015, and isn’t a shell of the pitcher he once was. Since 5/20/2013, Sabathia compiled an unimpressive 5.63 ERA in six starts against Baltimore. The veteran southpaw hurler has also been in shaky form during his previous three starts, evidenced by a sizable 1.76 WHIP, and issuing more walks than strikeouts.

These are two of the better power hitting teams in baseball that have combined to hit 369 home runs this season. I like this game to be a high scoring affair for one of my MLB picks on Wednesday. Pinnacle allows us to lay the least amount of juice regarding this wager.

MLB Pick: Play on the Orioles & Yankees Over 8.5 (-117) at Pinnacle.

 

Twins (Pelfrey) vs. Royals (Medlen) 8:10 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey has displayed horrible form during his previous three starts, posting a mammoth 10.21 ERA and 2.19 WHIP. Pelfrey has pitched very well at home this season but the road has been a whole other story. In fourteen away game starts, Pelfrey has an uninspiring 6.56 ERA and 1.84 WHIP.

Kris Medlen was inserted into the Royals starting rotation in place of a struggling Jeremy Guthrie. Early returns have indicated that move hasn’t panned out the way manager Ned Yost had hoped for. Medlen has pitched poorly in three starts with each of those games going over the total.

 

MLB Totals Betting Angles
Mike Pelfrey has a 4.36 ERA this season.

Kris Medlen has a 6.88 ERA during three starts in 2015.

The Minnesota Twins have a .247 team batting average for the year.

Any American League road team (Twins) with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 to 4.70, and has a team batting average of .260 or less for the year, facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 6.20 or worse, resulted in those games going 34-8 (81%) over the total since 1997. Those forty-two contests averaged a combined 12.8 runs scored per game.

MLB Pick: Play on the Twins & Royals Over 8.5 (-105) at The Greek