MLB handicapper shares his two top totals picks on Saturday’s card. Read this compelling betting preview article which covers totals in games between the Red Sox/Mets and Astros/Twins.
Red Sox (Kelly) vs. Mets (DeGrom) 4:05 PM ET
Joe Kelly has endured a rough season, but the right-hander has really come on of late. During his previous three starts, Kelly has compiled an impressive 1.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Jacob DeGrom is coming off a rare bad outing at Philadelphia. However, he’s been an absolute beast in twelve starts at Citi Field this season. DeGrom has posted an excellent 1.46 ERA and 0.91 WHIP at home. The Mets young right-hander has also been lights out in his day game starts, evidenced by his miniscule 0.94 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in those outings.
MLB Totals Betting Angle
Any road team (Boston) with a total of 7.0 or less, possessing a .290 or better team batting average during their previous twenty games, and is facing a pitcher (DeGrom) with a WHIP of 1.10 or less in his last ten starts, resulted in those games going 35-11 under the total since 1997. Those 46 contests averaged just a combined 5.5 runs scored per game.
I think it’s pretty obvious which direction that I’m leaning toward in regards to this MLB pick. 5Dimes gives me the best betting value pertaining to my wager.
MLB Pick: Play on Red Sox/Mets Under 7.0 (+110).
Astros (Fiers) vs. Twins (Pelfrey) 7:10 PM ET
Michael Fiers threw his first career no hitter in his previous start. During his previous three outings he has a microscopic 0.43 ERA, and he’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in eight of the last ten. Fiers has gone 15-5 under the total since 2014 when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Astros lost the opening game of this series on Friday against Minnesota 3-0. Houston is 21-7 under the total in 2015 following a game in which there were a combined 4 runs or less scored. Despite having a reputation of being an occasionally explosive offensive team this year, Houston possesses a poor .303 team OBP heading into today.
Mike Pelfrey has certainly had his share of troubles on the road this year. However, he’s put together a stellar home resume that starts with an exceptional 1.97 ERA in eleven starts. He’s also allowed just 2 home runs in 73.0 innings pitched this season at Target Field. That’s an important factor considering Houston is second in all of baseball with 174 home runs.
MLB Totals Betting Angle
Any American League road team (Houston) with a total of 8.0 or 8.5, possessing a team OBP of .320 or less, and is coming off a game in which there was a combined 3 runs or less scored, resulted in those games going 102-48 (68%) under the total since 2011.
MLB Pick: Play on the Astros and Twins Under 8.0 (-105) at 5Dimes.