I told you just a few days ago that the rage cash was coming, and after digging a moderate hole for ourselves since the All Star Break we have cashed our last three MLB props and are +3.4 units during the last two days. Let’s keep that going with two big player props for Monday.
Season MLB Props Record: 24-27-2 (-5.6 units)Freddie Freeman O/U 2½ Runs, Hits and RBIs
There isn’t much else to say about this play other than: Coors Field. The Rockies and Braves might be a launching pad more than a baseball game tonight. Much like we predicted a higher-scoring Brewers and Reds game this past Friday, there is going to be a chance for double-digit runs tonight both combined and potentially by one team.
Chad Bettis is on the bump for the Rockies, and the left-handed Freeman should have no trouble getting to him early and often. Freeman is hitting .349 with a .463 wOBA over 192 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. He has 149 total runs, hits and RBIs in those appearances, so assuming he gets four trips to the plate tonight, logic dictates that the 'over' is the play regardless of park factor or matchup.
Throw in the game being played at Coors and the fact that Bettis is making his first major-league start since being diagnosed with testicular cancer, and it’s not the greatest situation to try and get out one of the best hitters in baseball. Bettis is a feel-good story no doubt, but the numbers say that we could make some money on banking Freeman to uncork one, or at the very least have a big game at the plate.Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 2½ (-110)Bets Line Offered Both: Bovada
David Peralta vs. Carlos Beltran: More Runs, Hits and RBIs
Another sneaky good play from Bovada tonight comes from the Diamondbacks and Astros series. As good as Carlos Beltran has been over the years, his skills are starting to diminish. Whether it’s simple timing or bat speed or just plain being old, Beltran is not the Beltran from five or six years ago.
David Peralta may not be a household name, but he is a good hitter, and if he is hitting in the leadoff spot like normal, I like his chances of out swinging Beltran. Peralta has a stable of strong hitters behind him to knock him home.
The problem for Beltran is that in his advanced age, he usually hits further down the Astros’ order if everyone is playing. His normal spot in the order is sixth and if he is playing tonight, I think Peralta is going to have the better game.Free MLB Pick: Peralta (-120)