Sunday Night Baseball was kind to us after a tough couple of picks over the last week. We’re still working our way back from a slump post-All-Star Break, but we’ve also hit five of our last eight picks and I plan on adding to more to the win column Monday.
Season MLB Props Record: 26-30-2 (-6.95 units)Paul Goldschmidt O/U 2½ Runs, Hits and RBIs
Arizona's Goldschmidt before has burned us, but we’ve also hit a winning play on him earlier in the season. Therefore, I am going for a second and deciding win for Goldschmidt’s MLB odds tonight against the New York Mets.
Goldschmidt is up against right-hander Rob Gsellman is this evening’s game, and that should be a buffet for Goldschmidt. Gsellman has allowed righties to post a .369 wOBA this season and a .305 batting average over 212 total batters faced. He’s allowed only seven homers this season, and even though he has been better over his last few starts, Goldschmidt may be one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball. He is going to have the last laugh in this one.
On the surface, Goldschmidt has hit both righties and lefties pretty well this season. However, a look into the advanced stats shows that Goldschmidt has been even better against right-handed pitching. He owns a .427 wOBA against them compared to .401 against lefties. His isolated power jumps more than 50 points against righties this season, and his BABIP goes up nearly 20 points.
Considering how well Goldy has been hitting over the second half, this is a great 'over' play tonight from Citi Field. Even though he has been slowing down some over his last few games, that should be fixed tonight against Gsellman, who has only faced Goldschmidt one time in his career.Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 2½ (+100)Best Line Offered Both: Bovada
Edwin Encarnacion O/U 2½ Runs, Hits and RBIs
Another great opportunity for a prop pick on a big-time hitter tonight is the Indians' Encarnacion, who is up against Eduardo Rodriguez in an important AL series. The Red Sox’s left-hander has been pretty good this season, especially against right-handed hitters, which is rare.
E-Rod is holding righties to a .295 wOBA and .212 batting average over 313 plate appearances this season. He is striking out righties more than left-handed hitters, and their BABIP goes from .400 to .263 left to right.
Enter Encarnacion, who could ruin this prop play with one big swing of the bat, but statistically he could be a great fade tonight. He is only hitting .246 against southpaws and his isolated power also falls significantly. If we have less of a chance of getting a home run from Encarnacion while Rodriguez is on the bump, the 'under' seems like the play for this one. While the chalk is pretty heavy at -150, it’s worth it with Encarnacion’s depleted stats against lefties.Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 2½ (-150)