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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 30: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates his solo homerun as he runs the bases, to trail 4-2 to the Pittsburgh Pirates, during the fifth inning at Dodger Stadium on May 30, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Harry How / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Mookie Betts is surging in the home run race. We assess the MLB home run futures, and if Betts is an underdog offering value.

Betts is a top-tier all-around hitter but generally not a slugger who can keep up with the New York Yankees' Aaron Judge. Yet after a white-hot May, which is now continuing into early June, something odd is happening atop MLB's home run leaderboard.

Looking at it requires a good long stare to truly comprehend what your eyes are processing. You'll see Judge unsurprisingly leading with 19 long balls, and behind him are fellow brute-force ball-mashers like Yordon Alvarez and C.J. Cron (tied for third with 14), and Pete Alonso (who's in a large group tied for fifth with 13).

But between the latter hitters and Judge sits Betts, who's second league-wide and just three homers behind at 16.

It's easy to be skeptical of Betts' ability to prevail over Judge and others due to his lack of homer history compared to the true dinger kings. But sheer betting value wins at some point. And we've reached that point in early June as the balls keep flying off Betts' bat.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

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MLB Home Run Leaderboard

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MLB Home Fun Futures: Bet on Betts

Betts has predictably soared to become one of the top betting favorites for NL MVP nearly across the board. FanDuel Sportsbook (+320), Caesars Sportsbook (+275), and BetMGM (+300) list him with the shortest odds. He's tied with Manny Machado at DraftKings Sportsbook (+300), while PointsBet (+400) slots him just behind the San Diego Padres third baseman.

Yet despite keeping pace with Judge and being decently ahead of others, Betts' price to lead the league in homers remains appealing, especially at FanDuel. There's an opportunity to pounce before the market adjusts.

If Judge continues to deposit balls on Neptune while staying healthy and not wavering from his current absurd pace to hit nearly 63 homers in 2022, you tip your hat and congratulate those who snapped him up during the preseason at about +1200. But Judge's value has long since evaporated now about 50 games into the campaign. And although the NL MVP market has swiftly adjusted to Betts' hot streak following a slow start, the home run market is still lagging at most books.

Betts erupted in May, including a recent stretch of hitting seven home runs over 10 games. He finished the month slashing .342/.411/.746 with a 1.157 OPS and 12 home runs. His white-hot ways continued into June with another homer on the month's first day, going 3-for-5 with a fence-clearing shot against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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Overall, Judge ranks second with an OPS of 1.033, but Betts isn't far behind in fifth at 1.008.

Judge has clearly been the superior pure slugger throughout his career. He’s played significantly fewer games than Betts (1,020 to 621) while logging fewer plate appearances (4,651 to 2,677). Considering those chasms, Betts’ career homer lead of 194-177 is minuscule. His single-season high is 32 (2018), which is right in line with the veteran’s 162-game average of 31 homers. Meanwhile, Judge averages 46 dingers per 162 games. He’s fresh off hitting 39 in 2021 to tie for sixth league-wide, and the two-time Silver Slugger winner’s 52 in 2017 ranked second.

However, those outputs from Judge came during ideal conditions when a massive human stayed mostly healthy throughout a grueling baseball season.

There’s no magic crystal ball to predict injuries. But Betts has generally remained healthy aside from his hip issue in 2021 that led to only 122 games played, and he still won’t turn 30 years old until October. His first full season in the majors was 2015, and he averaged 148.4 games played per season over his first five campaigns. Betts also played all but five games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Meanwhile, Judge missed over half of 2020, appearing in just 28 contests. He’s sat for an extended time due to various ailments, playing in only 112 games in 2018 and 102 in 2019. Judge has logged a mere one season with 150-plus games played to Betts’ three. Even one minor IL stint could change this market dramatically, and Judge is the more likely candidate for that given his injury history.

The ball also isn’t flying out at the same level as in recent seasons, and that could quickly lower the barrier for entry into the home run race.

Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and including ties, four of the 25 players who have led the American or National league in home runs since 2012 finished with fewer than 40. That includes Pedro Alvarez and Paul Goldschmidt with 36 (2013), Giancarlo Stanton with 37 (2014), and Nolan Arenado with 38 (2018).

The low end suddenly feels reachable for Betts, as does warding off the more established sluggers while staying healthy. Crushed balls dying at warning tracks much more often will help, too.

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Whether Betts can prevail as the underdog will also come down to pace, both for him and Judge, and who can regress more smoothly.

It’s instinctive to believe Judge can maintain his ball-smacking ways given his track record. Judge’s 9.7 at-bats per home run isn't too far off his 2017 season, and the same is true for the 27.5% of his fly balls leaving the yard (he finished at 10.4 and 25.9%, respectively, in 2017). However, 17.9% of his fly balls sailed over fences just one season ago, and the deadened ball in 2022 seems likely to suck back some of Judge’s power.

Meanwhile, Betts' hard-hit percentage (balls leaving the bat at 95-plus mph) in 2022 of 47.5% is only a slight increase from his career norm of 46%. Judge sits at 62.6%, a sizable uptick from his career mark of 58.1%.

Judge is frequently planting balls in another stratosphere, but he faces obstacles. Some, like the deadened ball, are shared with Betts and the rest of the league. Others like health and avoiding regression from a higher perch are not.

There’s uncertainty and risk tied to Judge, while the value connected to Betts is clear.

Where to Bet on MLB Home Run Futures Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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