MLB Handicappers Signal Overvalued Teams

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 7:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 25, 2014 7:41 PM UTC

Here is a preview of three teams which are poised to bury those making MLB picks and leave them more frustrated in the coming weeks than a closer not holding a four run lead.

Los Angeles Dodgers (28-24, -3.2 units) 
The Dodgers are back home after a 5-4 winning road trip, which still produced negative numbers versus the MLB odds since they were favorite in every contest, and lost a modest 0.45 units. 

This homestand is against three clubs which are hovering at or below .500, and Los Angeles should feast on them, right? Before looking over the Maxim Hot 100 list, again, realize L.A. has been like overcooked sushi with a 10-13 record at Dodger Stadium, losing -8.5 units. 

Being the sportsbooks betting choice to win the National League, skipper Don Mattingly is in charge of a very public team against the betting odds, which will be even more inflated when SoCal. 

This leads to most lines being juiced 10 to 15 cents and when your offensive talent is not reflected on the scoreboard and while the bullpen has converted 75 percent of save chances, they have also been bludgeoned for 12 defeats. 

To this juncture of the season, the Dodgers play has been a too comfortable at home, lacking the sense of urgency and given the competition level, this could easily continue. 

Philadelphia Phillies (22-26, -3 units)
Philadelphia is an old team and clubs like this are prone to injuries, which could further undermine an unstable situation in the City of Brotherly Love. 

In spite of recognizable names, who are mostly past their prime, the Philadelphia front office wanted to take one last run at a division crown with cast of elderly gentlemen (in terms of baseball). 

Playing in a ballpark conducive to scoring, the Phillies are averaging an anemic 3.7 runs a contest and are 10-14, -5.4 units at home. 

Philadelphia just dropped a series to the Dodgers at Citizen Bank Park and while the Rockies are not an offensive dynamo they are at a mile high, they are certainly capable of scoring frequently. 

Next mix in a five-game series with the Mets, when your team has the second-highest ERA in the National League and it is relatively easy to see where problems are coming like runaway Mack truck against the betting odds. 

Minnesota Twins (23-25, +5.7)
Most every MLB baseball handicapper had to be impressed with the Twins start to the season, especially being among the top plays on the diamond. 

Unfortunately, after being swept in San Francisco, this could be a precursor of things to come. With the available talent, there is little reason to believe Minnesota will continue to score runs at their current rate, and this is being seen with the Twins team batting average and on-base percentage starting to sink. 

Players like Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello either have or are swiftly returning to career norms, which will slow down the offense from its hot start. Take away Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson and the rest of the Minnesota starters are 11-19 (Twins record). This leads directly to 60 percent of the time the Twins are in an unfavorable position to win and if their two best pitchers are facing hurlers who are also at the top of the rotation, they become closer to a 50-50 probability to win. 

If you have been reading my work this baseball season, you know my sentiments on team’s record in four or more run outcomes and the Minnesota is 7-15 in this category. I cannot forecast brighter days ahead for the Twinkies and will support them in the future with my MLB picks

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