We split a pair of our MLB props earlier this week in the first installment, and now here on a stacked card of Friday night action, I have found two more MLB props for tonight.
Max Scherzer O/U 9 strikeouts
The Washington Nationals are throwing out their ace on the mound tonight is a lopsided game against the Milwaukee Brewers. While betting the Nationals on the run line or even the moneyline might not be worth it thanks to the heavy chalk, a better wager might be on Scherzer’s strikeouts tonight.
Bovada sportsbook has his strikeout total at nine tonight, and going up against the Brewers is really going to help him rack up the K’s. Scherzer’s strikeout rate this season is 32.3 percent, which means even if he only goes six innings tonight, he has a chance to cash the over. I think he goes a lot longer than that, especially considering his strikeout rate against righties is 37.5 percent. The Brewers have some righties that will strikeout against Scherzer, including Chris Carter and Ryan Braun.
The Brewers are ranked as the worst strikeout team against right-handed pitching this season at over 25 percent. Considering the Nats are putting one of the most dominant strikeout pitcher on the hill tonight, look for Scherzer to have double-digit strikeouts.
My Pick: Over 9 -115
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Albert Pujols O/U 2.5 hits, runs and RBI’s
While Albert Pujols is nowhere near the player he was in St. Louis, the Angel’s first baseman has started to pick things up after coming back from being banged up last week. He has also been very strong against left-handed pitchers this season and in his career. The Angels are going up against the left-handed Eric Surkamp, who also owns a 7.20 ERA this season.
Pujols was back in the Angels’ lineup on Thursday, so he looks good to go here tonight. At 2 ½ hits, runs and RBI’s, one big hit could be the difference between a cashed ticket and a lost one. However, with Surkamp on the hill, Pujols’ MLB Odds of +140 for the over put it over the top for me.
Pujols has five homers in just 65 at bats against lefties this season, and he has a wOBA of .340 against left-handers this season. During his career, he has Isolated Power numbers of .288 against left-handers, and his fly-ball rate against them is 41.1 percent. That means that four out of every ten times Pujols makes contact against lefties it’s a fly ball. Considering he has hit 141 of his career homers off lefties in about a third of the at bats than he has hit his other 394 home runs, one big fly from Pujols tonight could cash us this +140 ticket.
This season, right-handers have rocked Surkamp. They have a wOBA of .411 against him this season, and he has allowed five home runs in 131 total batters this season. Righties own a BABIP of .352 against him this season, and his fly ball rate against righties is 40.6 percent this season. Look for Pujols to knock in a couple of hits in this one for a winning MLB Pick.
My Pick: Over 2.5 +140
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle