Justin Smoak decided to cool off at the wrong time, but luckily we won our heavy chalk play on Eric Hosmer, so we only lost a fraction of a unit. Friday night’s card is stacked with value from Bovada sportsbook, and we are going to one game in particular for both our plays.
Two nights ago we pushed this very play on Ryan Braun after he collected two early hits, but we were stifled in his final two at bats. However, tonight against Homer Baily and the Reds, Braun could have an opportunity to send us home with a victory on Friday’s big night slate.
With a total of only 2 runs, hits and RBI, as long as Braun stays around the mean of his second half production, this should be a safe play. Braun is hitting .341 in the second half, and considering he has 12 hits in his last five games, I like our chances of getting a winning ticket on this one.
Baily has not handled his career matchups with Braun well. He has allowed the Brewers’ slugger to hit 13-for-39 (.333) off him, with 3 home runs, 4 doubles and 8 RBI. Braun has an OPS of 1.048 against Baily, which is the highest of any active pitcher he has at least 40 plate appearances against. Bovada is messing up again tonight with only a total of 2 for Braun, so take advantage of it with some reasonable odds on top.Free MLB Pick: OVER (-125)Best Line Offered: at Bovada Joey Votto O/U 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI
Speaking of hot second halves, Joey Votto comes into tonight with a total of 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI, which would seemingly be less than what his recent production has provided.
Votto has made the month of August his metaphorical bitch. He is hitting .469 with 4 home runs, 3 doubles, 12 RBI, and 10 runs scored in just 42 plate appearances. He has 15 hits this month, which when added to his runs and RBI, he’s averaging 1.16 runs, hits and RBI per at bat in August.
Jimmy Nelson is no slouch this season by any means. He is having a career season, but earlier in his career he was susceptible to getting beat by lefties. He has corrected that a lot this season, which is one of the reasons for his success.
However, Votto has still gotten the better of him over their careers and this season. Votto has hit righties with a .330 average this season, to go with a .440 wOBA. He has hit 8-for-24 (.333) against Nelson, and both of his career homers off the Brewers’ ace came this season.
Hopefully, Nelson hasn’t learned from his mistakes and serves up another to Votto tonight. All we need is one to leave the yard, and the over at +105 is going to make us all very happy tonight.Free MLB Pick: OVER 2 ½ (+105)Best Lines Offered: at Bovada