We had a rough night on Thursday. The improbable loss set us back a bit on our road to recovery, but we still have more than a month left in this season, which means it’s time to buckle down and cash some winning MLB Picks on Friday night.
The Aaron Judge we knew before the All Star Break seems to be gone. He is hitting just .188 in the second half, compared to .329 to start the season. He is striking out more, and overall this season he has not been great against left-handed pitching.
Enter Ariel Miranda tonight for the Blue Jays, who has been great against hitters of both handedness, and he has a strikeout rate better than 21 percent against righties as well.
Judge is starting to come around though, which is why this prop is even available at Bovada. He went 4-for-12 at the dish against the Tigers, with two RBI and four runs scored. He didn’t hit any homers, but it may be the way the Yankees get their young slugger back to mashing the ball. Having him trying to not hit homers maybe what gets his wing back to pre-July levels.
However, Miranda is no slouch. Even though he hasn’t been great over his last three or four starts, as long as he doesn’t give up a long ball to Judge, I see the under being the play here. Miranda pitched well his last time out against the Yankees, so I’m confident enough in a turnaround start for him tonight, limiting Judge’s upside.Free MLB Pick: UNDER 2 ½ (-135)Best Line Offered: at Bovada Nelson Cruz O/U 2 runs, hits and RBI
Nelson Cruz hasn’t gotten a ton of playing time lately with the Mariners playing in an NL Park down in Atlanta. However, now heading into Yankee Stadium, I could not pass up this prop on the very same game.
The Mariners’ DH has been an absolute beast. He already has 100 RBI and 31 homers this season, and he owns a .380 batting average in the month of August. After a few days off over their series against the Braves Cruz should be well-rested and ready to mash against CC Sabathia tonight.
While Sabathia is having a stronger year compared to some recent seasons, he has been no match for Cruz at the plate. While lifetime Cruz has hit a modest .267 against Sabathia, over the last four years things have started to swing back into the favor of Cruz.
Since 2013, Cruz is 5-for-13 against Sabathia with 2 doubles, 2 walks and 2 RBI.
If we can continue that tonight from Yankee Stadium, this is an over play if I’ve ever seen one. For his career Cruz has hit lefties well with a .296 batting average. That should be good enough for at least a push tonight, but I’m banking on the over for the win in this one.Free MLB Pick: OVER 2 (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bovada