MLB Free Pick: Reds-Indians Makeup Produces ‘Under’ Winner

reds indians

Willie Bee

Monday, July 24, 2017 1:20 PM GMT

Chased by the Royals in the AL Central race, the Cleveland Indians are decided chalk on the MLB odds tonight at home against their Buckeye State rivals from Cincinnati.

MLB Season Record: 49-54-1 (-3.25)

Thwarted by Mother Nature roughly two months ago, the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians will wrap up their annual interleague clash Monday with a 7:10 PM (ET) first pitch at Progressive Field. The makeup features an initial battle on the mound between Tim Adelman (5-7, 4.96) and Josh Tomlin (6-9, 5.74), Cleveland chalked -182 at BetOnline with a 9½-run scoreboard target.

The Indians begin the final week of July on a 3-game win streak and holding a slim 1½-game lead in the AL Central over a climbing Kansas City crew that has won five in a row. Cincinnati is bringing up the rear of the NL Central and has found the second half of the season to be a struggle with only two wins in 10 tries since the break.

 

Tomlin Aims For 3rd Straight Win

Adelman is coming off a no-decision last week vs. the Diamondbacks, the former Georgetown pitcher tossing six and surrendering three runs. The Reds would go on to a 4-3 victory on a walk-off single by Adam Duvall after they and Adelman had dropped his previous three July starts. Home runs have been a big issue for the right-hander, batters taking him deep 22 times in 17 starts and a long relief outing. He faced the Indians once a year ago in Cincinnati, never making it through the fourth when Adelman had already burned through 76 pitches in a game Cleveland won, 7-2.

Tomlin has gone at least seven the last two times out, both winning efforts in which the former Texas Tech standout posted zeroes in both the HR and BB columns. He dropped a start in Cincinnati back in May, charged with five runs (4 earned) and nine hits in 6.1 frames. Zack Cozart has been the toughest out for Tomlin, the Reds shortstop collecting seven hits in 14 at-bats, and Joey Votto has taken him deep twice.

 

Rivalry Trends, Mother Nature & A Free Pick

This interleague rivalry dates to the very advent of AL-NL play in ’97, the Indians holding a 55-47 overall lead and dominating the Reds in Cleveland playing better than .600 baseball (32-20). The Tribe won 9 of 10 between the clubs in 2015-16, but it was Cincinnati taking 2 of 3 in late May, the ‘under’ also producing winners against the MLB odds twice.

There is a very slight chance of rain tonight in Cleveland, but otherwise just a cloudy, humid evening at Progressive Field. The thermometer should hover around 70° most of the game with a stiff 15-20 mph NNW wind (in from left). Put me down for an ‘under’ play with my free baseball pick.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 9½ (-107)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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