MLB Free Pick: Greinke & Leake Battle It Out In St. Louis

Willie Bee

Saturday, July 29, 2017 2:50 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 29, 2017 2:50 PM UTC

The Diamondbacks and Cardinals have traded shutouts in the first two games, and now Zack Greinke is favored on the MLB odds in Saturday’s skirmish against Mike Leake.

It has been nearly two months since the St. Louis Cardinals were .500 or better, and they have a chance to get back to level Saturday evening at home in the third of a 4-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. St. Louis will have to do so as the underdog as Arizona is around -130 chalk with Zack Greinke (12-4, 2.92) on the hill; Mike Leake (7-8, 3.20) gets the call for the Cards with 8 for the total.

Zack Godley and a pair of Arizona relievers spun a 5-hit shutout in Thursday’s series opener, all of the scoring coming on a JD Martinez grand slam. Michael Wacha and three St. Louis relievers returned the favor with a 1-0 decision on Friday, Bookmaker closing the Redbirds -136. The Cards have doubled-up on the Snakes at Busch II since it opened, 26-13, and the first two games in this set finished ‘under’ after the previous three in Arch City went ‘over.’


Redbirds 3-1 In Leake’s Last 4 Home Starts

Greinke has been fabulous hurling from his home mound, the Diamondbacks winning 11 of his 12 assignments to leave bettors following him on the MLB odds up more than 10 units. Arizona is 3-5 when he pitches on the road and down a little over 3 units. The 33 year old has a pretty nice track record at Busch Stadium, however, winning four of his last six starts here while fashioning a stellar 2.47 ERA.

Leake picked up his first win of the month this past Monday with seven shutout innings against the Rockies. The former Arizona State standout allowed four hits – all singles – and didn’t walk a batter while whiffing six. Defense let him down in two of the three previous starts, control issues in the other as the Cards lost all three of those games. Leake posted almost the exact same numbers against the D-Backs last season as he did in beating Colorado earlier this week, and he’s held Paul Goldschmidt to a .217 average (5-23) in their matchups.

 Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick

We should see Jim Wolf behind the dish this evening, the 19-year vet running 12-8 O/U on the season though three of his last four plate assignments stayed ‘under’ the totals. He worked a Cardinals-Diamondbacks contest in Phoenix about a month ago, that final going ‘over’ a 9 run mark, and road favorites have covered six times in 10 opportunities this season.

Clear skies, low humidity (by St. Louis standards) and temps in the upper-70s is what we should see most of this game, along with a 6-10 NE breeze (in from center). I’m siding with the series trend for my free baseball pick and playing the ‘under.’

Free MLB Pick: Under 8
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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