MLB Daily Pitching Report for Sports Bettors 8/11

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 11, 2014 12:37 PM GMT

We’ll be examining closely a couple of National League starting pitcher matchups tonight, and proceed to uncover the best MLB betting value in each game. Read who we think holds the wagering edge between the Cardinals/Marlins and Brewers/Cubs.

St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) vs. Miami Marlins (Koehler) 7:10 PM ET
The Cardinals starter Shelby Miller has displayed very good form over his last 3-starts posting a 2.41 ERA, an excellent 0.59 WHIP, and struck out 12 while walking just 1. However, the Cardinals right-hander has been from imposing when evaluating his entire body of work. He’s gone 10-12 against the money with a 4.02 ERA in 2014. There are a couple of totals facts regarding Miller which can be deemed pretty significant. He’s seen his last 8-starts on the road all go under the total when facing an opponent with a losing record. He’s also seen 11 of his 13-starts go under the total during the last 2-seasons when facing an opponent from the NL East.

The Marlins starter Alex Tom Koehler has pitched far better at home than on the road this season. The Marlins hurler has compiled a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his 10-starts at Marlins Park in 2014. He’s been especially tough in his last 3-starts at home posting a superb 0.90 ERA and all 3-games went under the total.

Advantage
The one time that Shelby Miller faced the Marlins this season he allowed 3 earned runs and 9-hits in just 5.0 innings. Miller has been inconsistent on the year, and versus a Miami team that hits much better at home than on the road is facing a difficult task. Koehler has been solid at home all season long. I’m giving a very slight MLB betting edge to Tom Koehler over Shelby Miller.

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Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) vs. Chicago Cubs (Arrieta) 8:05 PM ET
The Brewers starter Yavoni Gallardo enters tonight in stellar form over his last 3-starts as evidenced by his 1.93 ERA in those outings. However, the Milwaukee right-hander has had some difficult luck of late, going 1-7 in the last 8 against the money despite displaying decent form over that stretch. On a positive note, he’s gone a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 against the money at Wrigley Field with a terrific 2.10 ERA.

The Cubs starter Jake Arrieta has been nothing short of sensational at Wrigley this season going 5-2 against the money with a 1.88 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Cubs ace is coming off his worst start of the season at Colorado. I’m willing to overlook that outing, since pitchers that have been much more established than him, have suffered a similar plight at Coors Field. Arrieta has 3 career starts versus Milwaukee, and each of those came in 2013. All 3 of those games went under the total. The Cubs hurler posted a stellar 3.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in those appearances.
 

Advantage
I consider this pitching matchup to be dead even with all things considered regarding this exact situation. My MLB betting pick here will be toward a low scoring game.

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