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MLB Daily Picks: Totals, Run Line and Moneyline

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MLB Daily Picks: Totals, Run Line and Moneyline

Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies 

Thursday, August 13, 2020 – 04:05 PM EDT

Probable Pitchers

  • Orioles: Tom Eshelman (0-0 3.68 ERA)
  • Phillies: Jake Arrieta (1-1 2.45 ERA)

The Baltimore Orioles escaped with a 5-4 victory over the Phillies and have given the Phillies plenty of trouble this week.

The Phillies will look to get back on track against Tom Eshelman of the Baltimore Orioles. Eshelman has an ERA of 3.68 but has an FIP of 6.1.

He’s started two games this season and has gone just 7.1 innings and allowed six hits with three earned runs including two home runs. In 7.1 innings he has just three strikeouts and one walk with 15 fly balls and seven ground balls.

Eshelman has escaped damage in his first two starts even though batters are hitting .250 in 24 at-bats. Last season, batters hit .313 against Eshelman in his rookie campaign. He started four games and played in 10 games. He allowed 12 home runs in 36 innings with righties hitting .359 along with an OBP of .359 and a slugging percentage of .663.

The Phillies are currently slugging with at .410 against righties this season and have an ISO of .169 with a wOBA of .326. They’re also only striking out 16.3 percent of the time against righties which is the lowest percentage in the league this season.

Eshelman doesn’t strike out batters while the Phillies don’t strike out against righties often. It’s a great match-up for the Phillies here.

On the flip side, Jake Arrieta will take the mound for the Phillies. Arrieta has gone 11 innings and allowed just three earned runs on 10 strikeouts and one walk on the season. He’s also induced 16 ground balls and 14 fly balls in those two starts against the Yankees and the Braves, which are two solid offenses.

Arrieta has a 2.45 ERA and an OBA of .250 in 40 at-bats this season. Righties are hitting .259 while lefties are hitting .231. Last season, Arrieta finished with a 4.64 ERA and an OBA of .283. Lefties hit .317 but that number is down after two starts this season.

Prediction

The Phillies will look to slug against Eshelman and salvage the series against the Orioles where they’ve now lost the first two games in the series. I’ll take the Phillies bats against the “lucky” right-hander.

MLB Pick: Phillies Over 5 TT (-128)  at BetOnline

Phillies O 5 TT-128
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Matthew Boyd #48 of the Detroit Tigers. Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images/AFP

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

Wednesday, August 12, 2020 – 1:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • White Sox: Dylan Cease (2-1 4.05 ERA)
  • Tigers: Matthew Boyd (0-1 9.20 ERA)

The White took it to the Tigers, winning 8-4 on Tuesday. Wednesday will feature a day-game rubber match between two struggling pitchers.

Matthew Boyd will take the hill for the Tigers for his fourth start of the season. Boyd hasn’t finished more than five innings in a start this season and has allowed 23 hits in 14.2 innings while allowing 15 earned runs and 13 strikeouts along with five walks.

Boyd has allowed 35 fly balls and just 16 ground balls on the season. Currently, he’s striking out 7.98 batters per nine innings, walking 3.07 batters per nine innings, and allowing 1.84 home runs per nine innings. 

Boyd has a ground ball rate of 31.40 percent and an ERA of 9.2 along with an FIP of 5.28 in three starts.

On the other hand, the White Sox will send out Dylan Cease, who has also struggled recently. Cease has struck out 6.08 batters per nine innings but walked 4.05 batters per nine innings while allowing 2.03 home runs per nine innings.

He’s even been a bit lucky with leaving runners on base in his first three starts, leaving 89 runners on base, which should seriously regress. Cease is getting just 36.60 percent of ground balls and has an ERA of 4.05 along with an FIP of 6.34.

Cease is coming off a five-inning performance where he allowed just two hits and walked five while striking out four. Cease has allowed six earned runs and three home runs in 13.1 innings. In those innings, he’s allowed 14 hits and six walks with just nine strikeouts.

Cease has also allowed 27 fly balls to 14 ground balls. Cease was a bit lucky with balls in play in his last start and doesn’t figure to throw five shutout innings in that one, especially after allowing a walk per inning in his last start.

Batters are hitting Cease with a .280 average and lefties are hitting .313 with a .405 BP in 32 at-bats. Cease will be facing at least five lefties in the lineup including Niko Goodrum, Victor Reyes, and Jeimer Candelario who are all switch hitters.

Righty, JaCoby Jones has a wOBA of .375 against righties this season and has looked extremely sharp to start the season.

Prediction

The White Sox will likely have an entire lineup of right-handers to face Mathew Boyd in this game. Righties are hitting Boyd with a .396 average and a .464 OBP on the season in 48 at bats.

Cease, on the other hand, has a high FIP and was a bit lucky in his last start, especially with throwing five walks.

MLB Pick: Tigers/White Sox Over 8.5 (-120) at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Over 8.5-120
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Kenta Maeda #18 of the Minnesota Twins. Mark Brown/Getty Images/AFP

Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Wednesday, August 12, 2020 – 7:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers:

  • Twins: Kenta Maeda (2-0 2.65 ERA)
  • Brewers: Eric Lauer (0-1 9.53 ERA)

The Twins are coming off a nice performance against the Brewers on Tuesday and will look to continue the momentum in this one with Kenta Maeda on the mound.

Maeda has allowed just eight hits in 17 innings pitched with five earned runs and 2 home runs. He’s also struck out 16 and walked just three in those 17 innings. Maeda has induced 21 ground balls and 22 fly balls on the season which is good for 48.80 percent of ground balls in three games.

Maeda has an FIP of 3.14 and is walking just 1.59 batters per nine innings this season. He’s going to pitch after a six-inning performance against the Pirates where he allowed three earned runs on three hits while striking out four and walking one.

On the season, the Japanese pitcher has allowed an OBA of .136 with righties and lefties each hitting .136. He has been dominant and is backed by an offense that can be explosive at times.

Eric Lauer got his first start of the season against the Reds and allowed six runs in three innings while walking three and striking out two. He also allowed a home run in that game.

Before the start, he went 2.2 innings against the Cubs and shut them down with six strikeouts and one walk along with one hit. In his start, he allowed 11 fly balls and induced just one ground ball.

So far this season, he has 14 fly balls to one ground ball. Against the Twins, that could be real trouble. Batters are hitting .273 against Lauer with righties hitting .294 on the season.

Prediction

The Twins have been hitting for power against the Brewers in the first two games of the series and that won’t change in this one. Lauer struggles to keep the ball on the ground while Maeda has done a tremendous job this season limiting hits.

 MLB Pick: Twins (-139) at BetOnline

Twins-139
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Dylan Bundy #37 of the Los Angeles Angels. Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images/AFP

Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 - 09:40 PM EDT

Probable Pitchers:

  • Athletics: Mike Fiers (1-0 5.63 ERA)
  • Angels: Dylan Bundy (2-1 2.08 ERA)

The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels had an offensive explosion on Monday. That might not be the case tomorrow, especially for the Athletics.

Dylan Bundy will take the mound for the Angels. He's gone 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 2.41 FIP on the season. His BABIP is .184 and he's walking just .83 batters per nine innings while striking out 10.38 batters per nine innings.

Bundy pitched against the Mariners in his last start, allowing four hits and striking out 10 while walking none in his one-run complete game. So far this season, he's struck out 25 and walked just two with three quality starts in three games.

Batters are hitting .145 against Bundy on the season in 21.2 innings pitched and he's holding right-handed batters to a .061 average. Most of the A's power is coming from the right side this season.

Mike Fiers will get another shot on the mound against the Angels. Fiers allowed seven hits and four runs off two home runs in his win against the Rangers.

He's currently averaging 2.81 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.69 homers and walks per nine innings. His ERRA is 5.63 and his FIP is currently 5.34. Fiers pitches to contact but doesn't necessarily get soft contact when he gets the contact. He allowed 34 fly balls and 25 ground balls this season.

Prediction

Fiers has allowed 18 hits and 10 runs in 16 innings pitched, along with just five strikeouts and three home runs. Balls will be in play against Fiers and the Angels have plenty of bats in the middle of the order that can do some damage. I'll take the Angels -.5 in the first five innings.

MLB PickAngels -.5 F5 (-110) at BetOnline

Angels -5-110
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Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies. Julio Aguilar/Getty Images/AFP

Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 – 7:05pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Orioles: Alex Cobb (1-1 2.51 ERA)
  • Phillies: Zack Wheeler (2-0 2.08 ERA)

The Philadelphia Phillies exploded for plenty of runs in their final game against the Braves but will now welcome the Baltimore Orioles to their home.

Alex Cobb will take the mound for the Orioles. He’s gone 14.1 innings this season and allowed just four earned runs on 10 hits with 15 strikeouts and six walks. Cobb has induced 26 ground balls and just 14 fly balls on the season as well.

Cobb hasn’t gone very deep in games this season but has finished at least five innings in two of his three starts. In his most recent start, he finished five innings and allowed two hits and one solo home run while achieving seven strikeouts and three walks. He got nine ground balls and no fly balls in the entire start.

Cobb and the Orioles ended up losing that game 1-0 in a seven-inning game. Batters are hitting Cobb with a .182 OBA in three starts this season.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler will give it a go for the Phillies. He’s currently 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. In two starts this season, Wheeler has gone 13 innings and allowed three earned runs and struck out six while walking four. He’s also induced more ground balls than fly balls through the first two games this season.

Righties are hitting Wheeler with a .300 average through two games but last season, he held righties to .245 in 31 starts. He’ll likely regress back to those numbers as the season continues.

Prediction

Cobb has been a bright spot for the Orioles in the rotation this season. He’s limited hits and is inducing plenty of ground balls on the season. Wheeler has done a great job this season and has limited runs effectively while going deep enough in games for the Phillies.

Expect both offenses to start the game quietly. This is the only line out currently but will likely change to Under 5.5 officially in the morning.

MLB Pick: Orioles/Phillies Under 4.5 F5 (+114) at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 4.5 F5+114
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Randy Dobnak #68 of the Minnesota Twins. Joe Sargent/Getty Images/AFP

Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Monday, August 10, 2020 - 08:10 PM EDT

Probable Pitchers:

  • Twins: Randy Dobnak (2-1 .60 ERA)
  • Brewers: Adrian Houser (1-0 .75 ERA)

The Twins and Brewers will feature two pitchers that have been complete surprises to start the 2020 season. Randy Dobnak of the Twins has gone 2-1 with a .60 ERA while Adrian Houser of the Brewers has gone 1-0 with a .75 ERA.

The Twins are 10-6 on the season and 2-1 with Dobnak on the mound. Dobnak allowed one run in his first start against the White Sox but has since allowed no runs on six hits in 11 innings pitched along with two wins.

The issue with Dobnak is that he doesn't strike many batters out. He's struck out just eight batters in 15 innings this season. However, he's gotten 30 ground balls and just 14 fly balls in those three starts. He's also only walked four batters in those 15 innings.

Dobnak is currently holding batters to a .173 OBA while righties are hitting just .120 in 25 at bats. Lefties are hitting .222 in 27 at bats. Last season, Dobnak threw in nine games and started five of them. He had an ERA of 1.59 and an OBA of .245. He struggled against righties last season but seems to have made the adjustments this season.

Adrian Houser, on the other hand, is 1-0 with a .75 ERA and an FIP of 4.05. He has also maximized his ground ball rate at 74.10 percent to start the season. Houser is walking 3.75 batters per nine innings but has left every runner on base in two starts this season.

That will surely regress as the season progresses and against the Minnesota Twins offense, it's more than likely that Houser gets in a jam and can't get out of it this time.

Houser had a 3.72 ERA last season with an OBA of .244 in 35 games and 18 starts. Lefties hit .277 but although righties hit .217, he allowed two more home runs from the right side last season. Still, lefties slugged .467 compared to righties slugging .343.

Prediction

The Twins are 10-6 on the season and have a starter that has a .60 ERA on the mound in Randy Dobnak. While Houser has been very good himself, Dobnak has an FIP of 2.7 while Houser has an FIP of 4.05. Houser has been luckier with his ERA compared to Dobnak's.

The Twins offense is dynamic and if there's a team that can get to Houser, it'll be the balanced attack of the Twins. The MLB odds are near a pick-em, which is crazy to me.

MLB PickMinnesota Twins (-115) at BetOnline

Twins -115
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Dallas Keuchel Chicago White Sox
Dallas Keuchel - Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

Monday, August 10, 2020 – 7:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • White Sox: Dallas Keuchel (2-1 2.55 ERA)
  • Tigers: Michael Fulmer (0-0 13.50 ERA)

The White Sox are coming off a rain-delayed 10-inning loss at home to the Indians. Now they'll have to travel to Detroit for this next series, which is a bit concerning. However, the pitching match-up doesn't seem so concerning.

Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the White Sox. He's 2-1 on the year with a 2.55 ERA on the season. Keuchel's only loss this season came against the Milwaukee Brewers where he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings against the Brewers. The White Sox ended up losing, 1-0 after Keuchel's eight strikeout performance.

Keuchel has achieved 33 ground balls and 25 fly balls on the season along with 11 strikeouts and two walks. He's allowed 15 hits in 17.2 innings along with five earned runs.

Currently, while he's not striking out many, he still has an FIP of 2.8 and an xFIP of 3.4. His ground ball percentage is now 56.90 percent.

Batters are hitting .217 against Keuchel with righties hitting .236 and lefties hitting .143.

The Tigers have a high strikeout rate, meaning, Keuchel could be in line for more strikeouts in this one.

For the Tigers, Michael Fulmer will get the start for the Tigers after missing two previously scheduled starts earlier this season. He'll be on a pitch limit and then Daniel Norris will get the second portion of his start.

Fulmer has an ERA of 13.5 after one start with an FIP of 17.22 and an xFIP of 6.68 after a brutal start against the Kansas City Royals. Fulmer didn't pitch last season but in 2018, he struggled late in the season with a 6.11 ERA in July, a 7.56 ERA in August, and 4.50 ERA in September of 2018.

Daniel Norris, who will likely pitch the second portion of the start for the Tigers, went 1.2 innings against the Reds on August 2 and allowed four hits and two runs with two walks and no strikeouts.

In 2019, he went 3-13 in 29 starts and 33 games with a 4.49 ERA. He allowed opponents to hit .275. Righties hit .279 while lefties hit .260. His slugging percentage last season with .473, which is pretty high after 114.1 innings.

Prediction

This is basically a bullpen game for the Tigers going up against one of the better pitchers on tomorrow's slate in Dallas Keuchel. There's only one pitcher you can trust in this matchup. While the Sox will be arriving in Detroit late, Keuchel will still be prepared and ready to go.

The White Sox should scrape out a couple of runs. The Tigers bullpen has a 4.53 xFIP, which is one of the worst in the league this season.

If the White Sox didn't have a night game on Sunday, I'd consider the runline. Butt for that reason, I'll take those MLB odds on the moneyline.

White Sox-155
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Spencer Turnbull #56 of the Detroit Tigers. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images/AFP

Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Sunday, August 09, 2020 - 01:35 PM EDT

Probable Pitchers:

  • Tigers: Spencer Turnbull (1-0 2.45 ERA)
  • Pirates: Steven Brault (0-0 7.20 ERA)

The 7-5 Tigers will take on the 3-12 Pittsburgh Pirates. Yet, again, the game is nearly a pick-em.

The Tigers will pitch Spencer Turnbull who is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Turnbull has struck out 14 batters in two games and allowed just three runs in 11 innings pitched. Turnbull has turned some heads striking out 11.45 batters per nine innings. He has an FIP of 1.80 in two starts and hasn't allowed a home run in two games.

Turnbull is holding righties and lefties with a .154 average and low on-base percentage as well at .250. Turnbull had 17 losses last season but wasn't nearly as bad as his record showed. That's very apparent with a Tigers offense that is actually producing as of late.

Steven Brault will take the hill for the Pirates. Brault pitched well in two starts this season but was asked to pitch in relief on Friday against the Tigers. He allowed three hits and four runs along with three walks. He's still slated to get the start on Sunday but will likely be limited to how deep he goes.

Brault hasn't reached beyond the third inning in either start this season and the Tigers, who already smoked him in this series, will get more opportunities to smack Brault around.

Prediction

The Tigers continue to be underdogs on the road against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is 3-12 on the season with no hitting and no pitching. What are the MLB oddsmakers doing?

MLB PickDetroit Tigers (-106) at BetOnline

Tigers -106
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Spencer Turnbull #56 of the Detroit Tigers. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images/AFP

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers

Sunday, August 9, 2020 – 2:35pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Angels: Andrew Heaney (1-0 2.35 ERA)
  • Rangers: Lance Lynn (1-0 .49 ERA)

The Angels and Rangers will send out their number one aces on the mound for this one. Andrew Heaney of the Angels will take on Lance Lynn of the Rangers.

Lance Lynn has started three games this season and has a .49 ERA along with a 2.55 FIP. His BABIP is .143 and he's striking out 11.78 batters per nine innings.

Lynn has got at least six innings in every start this season and has struck out 24 batters in 18.1 innings pitched. Batters are hitting just .100 against Lynn this season. Lefties are hitting .105 and righties are hitting .091.

In his one day-game start this season, he went six innings and allowed just one hit and struck out eight while walking two.

Andrew Heaney will take the mound on the road for the Angels. He's 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA on the season along with a 2.85 FIP. Heaney has gone at least five innings in his last two starts and has allowed three earned runs combined in those starts.

Heaney, unlike Lynn, isn't throwing 100 pitches per start but reached a season high 87 in his win against the Mariners on Tuesday. Oddly enough, Heaney is struggling against lefties as they're hitting .278 with an OBP of .381 in 18 at bats this season. This isn't something new as he also struggled against lefties last season as they hit .321.

Heaney struck out 53 and walked 13 in home starts last season and should be in line for another solid outing and maybe even his first quality start as he starts to stretch out his outings.

Prediction

With two ace pitchers with an FIP below three, there's only one play to look at. It's the classic first five under. If your book doesn't offer these, go find an MLB sportsbook that does.

Under 4.5 F5-124
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Starter Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Indians. Jason Miller/Getty Images/AFP

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox

Sunday, August 9, 2020 – 7:08pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Indians: Shane Bieber (3-0 0.83 ERA)
  • White Sox: Lucas Giolito (1-1 5.17 ERA)

The Indians bats might finally be heating up after seven runs in their 7-1 win over the White Sox on Saturday. The Indians had ten hits as a team and scored six runs in one inning to propel them to victory.

Shane Bieber will get the start for the Indians. He hasn't lost a start, going 3-0 with a .83 ERA. Bieber is striking out 14.54 batters per nine innings while walking 1.25 batters per nine innings. He's got an FIP of 1.51 and an xFIP of 1.21. He's the Cy Young of the season thus far.

Bieber has pitched in the 8th inning in back-to-back starts and although he was tagged for two solo home runs in his last start against the Reds, he was still able too get 10 ground balls and just four fly balls.

Batters are hitting just .160 with a .203 OBP on the season. Batters haven't had any consistent success against Bieber this season. He's also averaging 21 strikeouts and two walks on the road this season.

He'll take on Lucas Giolito would had a rough first start but has turned it around since. Giolito has allowed two runs ini his last 12 innings pitched while striking out 15 and walking five. Currently this season, Giolito has an ERA of 5.17 and has allowed 18 strikeouts but also eight walks.

At home this season, he's 0-1 with a 17.18 ERA. His one bad start this season was on the road where he allowed seven runs on six hits in 3.2 innings. Lefties are hitting Giolito with a .308 average in 39 at bats. The Indians figure to have a left-handed heavy lineup in this one.

Prediction

Don't expect Giolito to put up those current and brutal home numbers in this one but the Indians have a line-up (on paper) that can do damage. And maybe, just maybe that Indians lineup is starting to get hot. They won't need much with Bieber on the mound. I'll take Bieber had these MLB odds.

MLB Pick: Indians -129 at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Indians -129
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Austin Voth Washington Nationals
Austin Voth - Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images/AFP

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

Saturday, August 08, 2020 - 06:10 PM EDT

Probable Pitchers:

  • Orioles: Tom Eshelman (0-0 2.70 ERA)
  • Nationals: Austin Voth (0-1 3.60 ERA)

The Baltimore Orioles are looking to get back to .500 after defeating the Nationals, 11-0, in the first game of the series. The Orioles will send Tom Eshelman to the mound for his first start of the season.

Eshelman has thrown 3.1 innings of work this season against the Marlins where he allowed one home run as the only hit he allowed in the game. He got one strikeout and allowed a walk.

Last season, Eshelman allowed an OBA of .313 and went 1-2 in four starts and 10 games played with a 6.50 ERA. On the road, he had a 5.40 ERA and allowed four home runs in 18.1 innings pitched along with an OBA of .307.

While Eshelman has a 2.7 ERA to start the season, he really escaped in that first game. His FIP is 7.18 and his xFIP is 5.41. If Eshelman exits the game early, the Orioles will rely on their bullpen which has an xFIP of 5.05, which is also the worst in the league.

The Nationals' Austin Voth hasn't been much better this season but he has more of a track record when it comes to success. He allowed four hits and three runs along with two home runs. Voth surrendered 12 fly balls and six ground outs while only striking out two.

Last season he held opponents to .213 OBA and had a 3.30 ERA. He also held righties to a .165 average in 79 at bats last season.

Prediction

The Nationals were shut out by the Orioles in the first game of the series. You can expect that same very team to come out swinging in this one. The Orioles won't pitch back-to-back shutouts and the sportsbooks recognize this.

MLB PickNationals Over 5 Team Total (-107) at BetOnline

Nationals Over 5TT-107
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Anthony DeSclafani #28 of the Cincinnati Reds. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Saturday, August 8, 2020 – 7:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Reds: Anthony DeSclafani (0-0 0.00 ERA)
  • Brewers: Brett Anderson (0-0 6.00 ERA)

The Reds opened up the first game of the series with a six-run second inning which helped cruise to a victory over Milwaukee. The Reds offense might be returning after eight runs against the Brewers on Friday.

DeSclafani went five innings in his first start of the season and finished allowing no runs on three hits in five innings. He struck out two and walked none. He pitched through five innings with just 64 pitches. He was on a pitch limit in his first start but was able to make quick work of the Tigers on the road.

Last season, DeSclafani had a 3.89 ERA after going 9-9 with an OBA of .238. The Brewers will still likely have five or six lefties in the lineup including Eric Sogard, Ben Gamel, Omar Narvaez, and Logan Morrison. Justin Smoak is a switch-hitter and should also be in the lineup.

He'll go up against Brett Anderson who made his Milwaukee debut earlier this week. Anderson went just three innings in his first start after allowing five hits and two runs. Anderson was able to get nine ground balls and just three fly balls in that game while striking out two and walking none.

Last season, righties hit Anderson with a .280 average and a .329 OBP along with a .441 slugging percentage.

Last season, Anderson faced the Reds once and allowed 4 runs on five hits and walked five with no strikeouts.

Prediction

Anderson will have trouble finding his command at times while DeSclafani tends to find the zone more often. The right-handed bats on the Reds scare a pitcher more than that Brewers lineup, other than Yelich. I'll roll with the Reds as a pick-em in this spot. The Reds are the better team but not via these MLB Odds.

Reds-110
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Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners

Saturday, August 8, 2020 – 9:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Rockies: Ryan Castellani (0-0 0.00 ERA)
  • Mariners: Nick Margevicius (0-0 5.40 ERA)

The Rockies are quietly 10-3 on the season while the Mariners are the opposite at 5-10. The Rockies will pitch Ryan Castellani, who will replace Chi Chi Gonzalez due to an injury.

Castellani will major league debut in this one. If you look at his minor league stats, you'll realize that Castellani is a big strikeout thrower but seems to struggle as he elevates tiers. Castellani went 2-5 in AAA with a 8.31 ERA in 10 games started. He allowed 11.2 hits, 2.9 home runs, and 6.2 walks per nine innings last season, along with 9.8 strikeouts.

Even in AA, Castellani went 16-21 with a 5.12 ERA. How can you trust him in his major league debut? He has a career record of 28-43 with a 4.80 ERA in every game he's ever played.

The Mariners will pitch Nick Margevicius. He's thrown five innings in three games this season but will make his first start of the season. In the first three games, he's allowed 3.6 home runs per nine innings and has an FIP of 6.78 along with an ERA of 5.4

Last season he had an ERA of 6.79 and went 2-6 in 17 games and 12 starts. Lefties hit .390 in 82 at bats with a slugging percentage of .732. The Rockies have plenty of left handed sluggers in their lineup.

Colorado Rockies - Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images/AFP

Prediction

You can't trust Castellani in this start as he has looked worse statistically every time he moves up a level in baseball. But those Rockies lefties are intriguing against Margevicius as well. The over nine is appealing for this MLB pick. This game isn't in Coors Field but the MLB lines still seem off.

MLB Pick: Over 9 Rockies/Mariners at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

COL / SEA Over 9-120
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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Friday, August 07, 2020 - 06:40 PM EDT

Probable Pitchers:

  • Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (0-0 3.38 ERA)
  • Tampa Bay: Blake Snell (0-0 5.40 ERA)

The Yankees dropped a heart-breaking loss to the Phillies on Thursday after a double-header led a couple of their superstars to the bench. Now the Yankees will travel to Tampa Bay after losing two of their last three games.

Masahiro Tanaka will take the hill. In his first start of the season, Tanaka went 2.2 innings against the Red Sox. He allowed four hits and two runs (one earned) with three strikeouts and one walk. This was his first start since the line drive hit his head in practice from Stanton.

Tanaka had an ERA of 6.05 on the road with an OBA of .287 in 15 games. He finished  3-6 in those games. However, against Tampa Bay last season, he had a 1.59 ERA in four starts. His ERA against the Rays was a 1.59 ERA in 28.1 innings pitched where he struck out 28 and walked just three batters.

Tanaka has the Rays number.

He’ll go up against Blake Snell who has had two starts and finished just five innings of work. He’s struck out nine in those five innings but he hasn’t been able to go deep in these games. The Rays bullpen has an xFIP of 4.14 while the Yankees have a xFIP of 3.80 out of the bullpen. If this game is close towards the end of the game, the Yankees will have the edge with their pitching and hitting.

Snell had a 2.89 ERA at home but still went just 4-3 on the season last year. He went 0-2 against the Yankees with a 4.50 ERA in five starts, striking out 30 and walking 11 while allowing 20 hits in 22 innings.

Prediction

The Yankees are almost at a pick-em for this game. That’s unheard of. Tanaka has been fantastic against the Rays in his career while Snell didn’t win a game in five tries versus the Yankees last year.

MLB PickYankees (-112) at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Yankees-112
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Nick Castellanos #2 of the Cincinnati Reds. Joe Robbins/Getty Images/AFP

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Friday, August 7, 2020 – 8:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Reds: Trevor Bauer  (1-0 .68 ERA)
  • Brewers: Eric Lauer (0-0 0.00 ERA)

If you’re not the Cubs, you’re likely struggling to hit in the NL Central division. That’s good news for under bettors as Trevor Bauer will take the mound in this match-up.

Bauer is 1-0 with a .68 ERA on the season. He’s averaging 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings and just 2.03 walks per nine innings. His FIP is currently a whopping 1.63 this season.

Last season, Bauer held righties to a .216 average. That Brewers lineup, outside of Yelich, is mainly right-handed.

Bauer was traded to the Reds in the middle of the season last year and didn’t face the Brewers last season.

Eric Lauer will get the start for the Brewers after turning heads in a relief appearance. The 25-year-old went 2.2 innings and allowed one hit while striking out six and walking one.

Last season Lauer went 8-10 in 29 games started. He had an OBA of .268 and allowed an OBA of 2.60 at home, even though he had a 3.08 ERA in 14 games started.

Lauer faced the Reds last season in two starts and averaged an ERA of 3. He struck out 10 and walked four while allowing three earned runs and four runs in nine innings. If he can allow two or fewer runs, the Reds and Brewers will more than likely be competing in a tight game after the first five innings.

Prediction

The Brewers and Reds have had miserable offenses and solid pitching this season. Bauer looks to be in mid-season form and if Lauer is anything like that relief outing, he’ll have a solid start as well. He started 29 games last season. He can be stretched out if he’s performing well.

MLB Pick: Under 4.5 F5  (-103)  at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 4.5 F5-103
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Former San Diego Padre Cory Spangenberg - Original photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images/AFP

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

Friday, August 7, 2020 – 9:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers

  • Diamondbacks: Luke Weaver (0-2 14.73 ERA)
  • Padres: Zach Davies  (1-1 4.50 ERA)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5-8 on the season. Two of those losses are from Luke Weaver who is 0-2 with a 14.73 ERA.

Weaver is currently averaging 6.14 walks per nine innings along with 3.68 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is a ridiculous 7.76 and he’s not having a solid time on the mound to start his season.

Weaver is 1-4 in his last seven starts dating back to last season and accumulated a 5.13 ERA in those last seven starts.

Zach Davies is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in ten innings pitched this season. He’s allowed nine hits and six runs (five earned) with seven strikeouts and one walk. He’s also allowed two home runs. He had an ERA of 4.09 in two starts against the Diamondbacks with five earned runs in 11 innings. He’s been average against the Diamondbacks.

Weaver has dominated the Padres throughout his career and especially in 2019. Weaver has a 2.51 ERA in three starts where he allowed four runs and struck out 16 and walked none.

Still, Weaver went 0-2 against the Padres in those three games.

Prediction

The stats share that Weaver will get destroyed. But in the event that Weaver does pitch well, I still like the Padres offense to scrape runs in the bottom half of the game. I’ll take the Padres to win this one at home against Luke Weaver.

MLB Pick: Padres -129  at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Padres-129
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