MLB Betting Value On The Home Team Run-Line In Cubs-Giants Game 4

Giants fans

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, October 11, 2016 6:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2016 6:05 PM UTC

The Giants have a flair for the dynamic, but does this mean we should back them with our hard earned cash? Our MLB handicapper likes the run line odds in this game and breaks down the pitching matchup.



2016 MLB Record: 53-40-4, +10.00 Units 

The Giants faithful know who they are voting for President this year, a write-in vote for Connor Gillespie, as the 3rd baseman hit a 2-run triple in the bottom of the 8th last night to put the Giants up 4-3 in a tightly contested game off of closer, Aroldis Chapman. In a questionable move, Chapman was brought in for a 6-out save and couldn’t get the job done. The eventual 13-inning win brought the Giants back from the brink and they now find themselves down 2-1 in the National League Divisional Series.

Slated to start for the Cubs in this game on the road is John Lackey, who John Maddon named the starter not knowing if he needed a starter in this game or not. Lackey has had a pretty good year, going 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA, 180/53 K/BB rate, 1.06 WHIP (very good), and .213 batting average against. There is a little bit of luck baked into Lackey’s numbers this year, as his .255 batting average on balls in play against (BABIP) is 47 points lower than his career average.



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Starting for the Giants in this game is Matt Moore, who has been exceptionally strong at home this season. In 112.1 innings at AT&T Park, Moore has posted a 3.36 ERA, 103/32 K/BB rate, and .225 batting average allowed. Moore has not faced the Cubs this year, as he came from Tampa Bay of the American League mid-season. In fact, Matt Moore has never faced the Cubs in his 6-year MLB career.

With the Cubs up 2-0 in the series last night, they were able to throw Mike Montgomery out for 4 innings after the 9th to save the rest of the bullpen. The Cubs used 6 relievers in all, compared to the Giants’ four. Both closers blew a save opportunity.

Look, the Cubs are the better team on paper here, but the Giants have a knack for finding a way to win at home, obviously. The odds have come out and the Cubs are favored at -128 at Bovada, where you can get 100% Cash Bonus, with the total coming in at 7.5 runs. I don’t like either line. The line that I am in love with; however, is the run line. The Giants can be spotted 1.5 runs at home and still pay -145 at Bovada. I see this as great value for a game that should be a nail biter once again. The Giants will not go quietly into the night and I expect that they will force a close game. I’m grabbing the extra cushion and taking the Giants as my MLB pick at -145, +1.5 runs at Bovada for Tuesday night’s action.


Free MLB Pick: Giants 1.5 (-145)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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