MLB Betting: Underdog Value Sides With Twins & Their Young Starter As They Take On Houston

Charles Stark

Thursday, August 11, 2016 2:35 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 11, 2016 2:35 PM UTC

Considering Astro's overall record compared to the Twins and with a solid veteran on the mound today they have actually been made just a small road favorite. Should Houston be made a bigger favorite in this contest?

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins   
Odds makers have made Houston around a -123 favorite across the MLB odds board with Minnesota sitting around +113. For my MLB pick I'm going to take the Twins like at Pinnacle Sports +114. The young starter taking the mound for Minnesota today is a lot better than his numbers indicate and Minnesota despite their record is one of the better offensive teams in the American League.


Houston Astros
Doug Fister gets the start for Houston making his first appearance against Minnesota this season with an overall 3.47 ERA and 1.28 whip. He has been a very stable force for the Astros with a 10-7 record but Houston is only 5-5 in his last 10 starts. On closer look in four out of his last five games he has been superb allowing a total of four earned runs along with two times allowing zero earned runs versus Oakland and Toronto. He had a rough outing versus New York a few games ago allowing six earned runs off of nine hits in just four innings but he bounced right back his next two starts and on the road for the most part the season has been very good with an ERA just over 3.00. Surprisingly we look at his counterpart's numbers he is not been made a bigger favorite but I believe that is more in proportion to Houston's offensive struggles these past few weeks than his performance. Overall Houston is just hitting .242 as a team which ranks 27th in the major leagues and rank in the bottom part of the league in most every offensive category. They seem to be breaking out a little bit but the past few weeks they have really struggled and I believe they could actually have some trouble scoring tonight despite the poor numbers of the pitcher they face tonight.


Minnesota Twins
José Berrios gets his seventh career start today and comes in with a 8.31 ERA and 1.69 whip. Just looking at those numbers off the bat it seems like Houston is the easy play but Berrios is actually a much better pitcher than these numbers would indicate. Back in May he pitched a really solid ballgame against the Astros allowing two earned runs in five innings off of just three hits, unfortunately two of those hits were home runs. His bad numbers really stem from a horrible performance at Detroit where he couldn't get out of an inning and allowed seven earned runs but the young 22-year-old has a lot of potential. His major issue is giving up the long ball and in the major leagues that is plagued him giving up 2.4 home runs per nine innings pitched but his AAA average was much better allowing just 0.5 per nine. As well, there is good reason Minnesota called him back up earlier this month because he was very solid in the minors going 10-5 this season with a 2.44 ERA and 1.00 whip. The potential is there and he has the capability of coming in and pitching a very good game today. Minnesota has been one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball this second half of the season and currently overall they rank eighth in total bases 11th in OPS, 12th in runs per game, and 14th in batting average.


Free MLB Picks: Twins +114
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
July record: 13-9
August record: 6-2

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