MLB Betting: 'Under' As Best Totals Pick For Monday

Monday, June 27, 2016 1:45 PM GMT

All season the Chicago Cubs are mentioned as best team. Not sure if you've noticed but the San Francisco Giants have more wins so far. Here are my top 3 totals picks for Monday.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Colorado Rockies
This is not just the highest total on the board by far for Monday's games but also the highest opening total of the season that I can remember. I've seen 12 a few times -- this is at 12 at a few other sportsbooks -- but not 12.5. Could it even be 13 by first pitch? Not sure I've ever seen that. Toronto remains without slugging outfielder Jose Bautista due to a turf toe injury. He was placed on the 15-dal DL on June 17 and doesn't seem likely to return until after the All-Star break. Bautista was hitting .230 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs. +

Meanwhile, teammate Edwin Encarnacion is in the running for AL Player of the Month in June as he's hitting .295 with nine homers and 26 RBIs in the month. Both he and Bautista are free agents after the season. I expect the Jays to sign Encarnacion but not Bautista. Encarnacion is usually Toronto's starting DH but the team loses that in this interleague game in an NL park so I'd assume that he plays first base and Justin Smoak sits. The Jays start right-hander Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.70) on the mound.  He lost for the first time since April 27 last Tuesday, giving up three runs and two hits over six innings against Arizona.

Estrada became the first pitcher to make 11 straight starts of six-plus innings with fewer than five hits in each outing. A few Rockies have seen him. Carlos Gonzalez is 1-for-5 with a homer against him. Charlie Blackmon is 1-for-4 with a double. The Rockies go with young Jon Gray (4-3, 4.80). They have lost his past three. Last time out, Gray was tagged for four runs in four innings at the Yankees. He has never faced the Jays. 

I simply can't recommend going 'over' that huge total even in Colorado. So 'under' is my MLB Picks. 'Under' is 5-0 in Estrada's past five series openers. It is 3-0-1 in Gray's past four series openers.

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MLB Free Pick: Under 11½ -105  
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker  

 

Cleveland Indians vs. Atlanta Braves 
The hottest team in baseball is the Cleveland Indians, who bring an MLB-high nine-game winning streak -- outscoring foes 60-19 in that stretch -- into this interleague matchup in Atlanta, meaning the Tribe lose the DH. Cleveland has opened a five-game lead in the AL Central over second-place Kansas City.

The Indians' 44-30 record is the franchise's best through 74 game since 2001. The Braves, meanwhile, have the worst record in the National League, and they are the worst offensive club in MLB. Cleveland starts Trevor Bauer (5-2, 3.20) on the mound. He comes off one of his best outings of the season, a complete game against Tampa Bay, allowing one run and three hits while striking out 10. Bauer hasn't personally lost since May 21. Only a few Braves have faced him in a regular-season game.

Freddie Freeman is 1-for-2 with a double. Tyler Flowers is 3-for-6 with an RBI. The Braves counter with John Gant (1-2, 4.45). He began the season in the bullpen and had a 6.17 ERA in seven appearances. Since moving to the rotation, he has a 3.24 ERA in three starts. Gant has never faced Cleveland. I'd go 'under' this entire series -- the Tribe have a stellar pitching staff and the Braves can't hit.

The 'under' is 7-0 in Bauer's past seven interleague starts for MLB Odds. The 'under' is 8-1 in Atlanta's past nine games.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8 -115 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals 
This has the lowest total on the board. The Mets start ace Noah Syndergaard (8-2, 2.08). New York manager Terry Collins made headlines after Syndergaard's last start when he casually mentioned in the post-game press conference that he pulled his pitcher after six innings against the Royals because Syndergaard was dealing with some discomfort in his pitching elbow. Obviously that could have been potentially major -- and devastating news -- for the Mets.

But Syndergaard checked out OK on an MRI, was given some anti-inflammatory medicine and is back on the mound here. Syndergaard has faced Washington once this season and beat the visiting Nationals on May 17, throwing seven shutout innings and striking out 10. Washington starts Joe Ross (6-4, 3.11). He hasn't personally lost since May 21. Last time out, he allowed two runs over 6.1 innings in a no-decision at the Dodgers. Ross was originally to start Tuesday's game but was bumped up a day because of an injury to Stephen Strasburg, who has landed on the DL. Ross hasn't faced the Mets in 2016. Last year, he was 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts against them.

'Under.' It is 6-0 in the Mets' past six series openers. It's 11-2 in Syndergaard's past 13 series openers. The 'under' is 4-1 in Ross' past five at home vs. teams with a winning record.

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MLB Free Pick: Under 7½ +100
Best Line Offered: at Heritage