MLB Betting: Two Valuable Underdog Selections To Cash Tickets

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, July 7, 2016 11:39 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 7, 2016 11:39 AM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional is an outstanding 33-25 (57%/+1644) with his last 58 underdog picks. Go inside for his pair of cash cows for Thursday.

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Minnesota Twins (Duffey) vs. Texas Rangers (Gonzalez) 
Tyler Duffey has shown good form in his six road starts this year, posting a very respectable 3.60 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. By virtue of their 4-0 home win over Oakland on Wednesday afternoon, Minnesota has now won four of its last five games. The Twins offensive numbers have been super during their previous eight outings, averaging 6.4 runs per game, and possessing a terrific .815 team OPS.

The Rangers are coming off an 11-6 defeat yesterday at Fenway Park in Boston. They’ve now lost six of their last eight. Chi Chi Gonzalez has made two career starts against Minnesota and both have taken place since 2015. The young right-handed hurler posted a terrible 8.52 ERA and 2.21 WHIP in those appearances. Gonzalez will be making just his third start of the season, and has compiled a horrible 9.52 ERA in addition to a 2.82 WHIP thus far.

I’ve often stated throughout my career, one of the fundamental handicapping approaches is to think like a bookmaker. Consider these points when dissecting this matchup. Minnesota is 10-28 (.263) on the road, and Texas is 28-12 (.700) at home. The Twins are 18-42 (.300) versus right-handed starting pitchers, and the Rangers are 39-22 (.639) against right-handed starters. Despite the disparity in those numbers, current MLB odds list Minnesota as only a +105 money line underdog. Needless to say, sportsbooks aren’t that generous.

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MLB Pick: Twins +105
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Oakland A’s (Hill) vs. Houston Astros (Fister)
Rich Hill has gone an impeccable 6-0 on the road in 2016, while collecting a brilliant 1.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Hill has also displayed excellent form over his past three starts, amassing a 1.77 ERA during that span.

Doug Fister has exhibited shaky form through his prior three starts. For the duration of that time, Fister registered a lofty 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Houston has gone a rock solid 35-24 (.593) versus right-handed pitchers in 2016. However, they’re a less than inspiring 11-15 (.423) versus southpaws, and have especially struggled against quality lefties similar to what they’ll be facing tonight.

Reverting back to my notion of thinking like a bookmaker. Oakland has gone 1-6 over the course of its last seven games. On the other hand, Houston is surging, evidenced by a 14-3 record through its previous seventeen contests. I’m going with a contrarian methodology, and will opt for the road underdog when making one of my MLB picks on Thursday.

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MLB Pick: Athletics +114 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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