MLB Betting: Two Underdogs Ready To Deliver Impressive Upsets

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 1:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 26, 2016 1:55 PM UTC

After going a perfect 4-0 this past weekend with his MLB moneyline underdog picks, our expert capper shares a new pair underdogs to go with tonight.

Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) 7:10 PM ET
Jake Odorizzi has made three starts against Baltimore since 5/31/2015, and they were less than inspiring ones. During those outings he compiled a lofty 6.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

Tuesday’s Baltimore starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez has gone 4-1 in his career versus Tampa Bay, and posted a stellar 2.56 ERA during those outings. Jimenez can take comfort in knowing his bullpen has been terrific thus far this season. Oriole relievers have a cumulative 1.78 ERA in 2016.

Baltimore enters today averaging 4.5 runs scored per game. The Orioles are coming off two straight losses by scores of 6-1 and 2-0. They’ll be facing a starting pitcher (Odorizzi) on Thursday that has a 3.97 ERA this season. Current MLB odds have Baltimore as a +121 money line underdog  at Heritage in this AL East Division matchup. This leads us right into a very profitable MLB underdog betting angle.

Any road money line underdog of +100 to +150, averaging 4.5 runs or less scored per game, and they’re coming off two straight games where they scored 1 run or less during each outing, versus a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or less, resulted in this road underdogs going 32-15 (68.1%) since 1997. Hypothetically if you made a $100 wager on all 47 of those road underdogs, it would’ve resulted in a $2490 profit.

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Free MLB Pick: Baltimore +118
Best Line Offered: at Intertops


Kansas City Royals (Volquez) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Weaver) 10:05 PM ET
Jered Weaver has a stellar 3.12 ERA in his first three starts of 2016. The veteran Angeles right-hander will be facing a Royals team which possesses a poor .310 on base percentage so far this season. Weaver has gone an outstanding 45-14 (.763) during his career home team starts when facing an opponent which has an on base percentage of .320 or less.

Kansas City has dropped three straight road games. During those defeats, the Royals averaged only 2.0 runs and 6.3 hits per game. The most recent of those away defeats came in a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of the Angels last night. Despite getting off to an impressive start in 2016, Kansas City is averaging just 3.7 runs scored per game.

Play against any road team which is -100 to -150 on the money line, averaging 4.5 or less runs scored per game, and scored 2 runs or less during their previous outing, versus an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better. The home teams in those games were 45-20 (69.2%) since 1997. By wagering $100 on the home team in all 65 of those games, you would’ve realized a profit of $2900.

I like the money line home underdog betting value in this American League matchup. One of my Tuesday MLB picks will be indicative of exactly that.

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Free MLB Pick:  Los Angeles Angels +108
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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