MLB Betting: Two MLB Money Line Underdog Prices With Superb Values

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, July 28, 2016 5:29 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 28, 2016 5:29 PM UTC

Our handicapping professional shares his top two money line underdog prices for Thursday’s card. Join us in reading this compelling article that clearly identifies MLB betting values.

Cardinals (Wacha) vs Marlins (Fernandez)
Michael Wacha has exhibited poor form over his last five starts, and that’s evidenced by a sizable 1.70 WHIP in those outings. St. Louis is one of the better road teams in baseball this season. By virtue of a 5-4 road victory against the Mets on Wednesday, they now own a very good 29-17 road record. Nevertheless, they’ve gone an uninspiring 1-5 during their previous six games following a road win. The Cardinals also possess an anemic .257 team OBP through its preceding seven games.

Miami ace Jose Fernandez will be on the mound today. Fernandez has been nothing short of sensational in eleven starts at Marlins Park this year, compiling a dominating 1.63 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Fernandez has allowed 2 earned runs in each of his prior two starts. The star right-handed hurler is a remarkable 17-0 in his career home starts after allowing 2 earned runs or less in each of his last two appearances. All of those outings have come with Miami, and the Marlins won by an average of 3.3 runs per game. The Marlins are an outstanding 15-5 against NL Central teams in 2016, and have gone 9-1 this year when playing on Thursdays.

I’m opting to go with the run line favorite at a money line underdog price for one of my Thursday MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Miami -1.5 (+123) 
Best Line Offered: at Matchbook


White Sox (Sale) vs Cubs (Lackey) 
Chris Sale may very well be making his last appearance in a White Sox uniform. It’s been widely rumored that Sale will be moved by the upcoming trade deadline. Sale has been terrific in ten road starts this year, collecting an exceptional 2.08 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Sale was 2-0 against the Cubs last year with a microscopic 0.64 ERA, and struck out 25 in 14.0 innings pitched. The southpaw ace averages just 1.53 walks per start. Conversely, the Cubs are an insipid 7-12 this season against starting pitchers that average 1.75 or less walks per start.

John Lackey has exhibited shaky form over his last four starts, proven by a sizable 1.70 WHIP, and he surrendered 6 home runs in 26.0 innings of work.

  • Current MLB odds at has the White Sox as a +121 money line underdog
  • The Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs scored per game this year
  • The Cubs are coming off an 8-1win yesterday
  • Chris Sale has a 3.19 ERA in 19 starts this season

Any American League team with a starting pitcher that possesses an ERA of 4.20 or less, versus a National League opponent averaging 5.0 or more runs scored per game, and that NL team is coming off a win by 4 runs or more, resulted in those AL teams going 57-23 (71.2%) since 1997.

Free MLB Pick: White Sox +120
Best Line Offered: at Bookmarker

comment here