MLB Betting: Twins vs Red Sox, June 29th

Jason Lake

Wednesday, June 28, 2017 7:24 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 28, 2017 7:24 PM UTC

David Price and the Boston Red Sox are big –206 favorites on the MLB odds board for Thursday’s game against the Minnesota Twins. That price is definitely not right.

David Price is a damn fine pitcher – when he’s on top of his game. Consistency has eluded the former Cy Young winner since he signed with the Boston Red Sox before the 2016 campaign. Injuries haven’t helped; Price began the new season on the DL after hurting his elbow in spring training, and in six starts since making his 2017 debut, Price (5.70 FIP) has a team record of 3-3, dropping 1.29 betting units along the way.

Price is scheduled to pitch for the Sox this Thursday (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) when they host Kyle Gibson and the Minnesota Twins. Gibson (5.60 FIP) has struggled this year, but the Twins are still 7-6 behind the towering righty for 2.79 units in profit. And it looks like Minnesota’s a bargain for this matchup at +191 on the MLB odds board as we go to press.

Nailed It

If you’re a regular visitor to the ranch, you’ve seen how useful FiveThirtyEight’s free projections have been for setting our baseline expectations – in concert with the almighty SBR Betting Odds Converter. For Thursday’s game, FiveThirtyEight has Minnesota winning just 36 percent of the time; that still works out to +178, vigorish not included. Not quite the 20-cent difference we’re looking for, but it’s a start.

One look at the BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) allowed by each pitcher gives us even more confidence recommending the Twins for your MLB picks. Price has what should be an unsustainably low .250 BABIP, while Gibson is sitting at .350 BABIP, well above his already-high career average of .309. That’s why Gibson has the slightly smaller FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), while Price’s ERA is about 1.5 runs lower.

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John Farrell clarified this today: David Price was dealing with a cracked fingernail in last night's game.

— Brian MacPherson (@brianmacp) June 25, 2017

And what’s this? Price has a cracked fingernail? Sounds painful. Recreational bettors – of which the Sox have plenty – might not appreciate how important a good manicure is for top-flight pitchers. Price gets paid $30 million a year (!) to do this, but that doesn’t mean he’s made of titanium. We’ll take Gibson and his presumably healthy fingers, thank you kindly.

Free MLB Pick: Twins +191
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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