MLB Betting: Tight Pitching Duel, Warrants A Creative Bet For D-Backs & Pirates

Ivan Nova

Tuesday, May 30, 2017 3:10 PM GMT

The Diamondbacks will look to cure their struggles on the road and end a three-game losing streak away from home. They may find more trouble in Pittsburgh than they bargained for because, despite a 24-28 overall record, The Pirates have a positive streak at home going for them.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates

The Diamondbacks have produced just two runs in their past four games before the eighth inning. Their inclination to start slowly on the road won’t help them against Ivan Nova, starting pitcher for the Pirates Tonight. But I also don’t see the Pirates standing a chance against Robbie Ray, who will be throwing the baseball for the Diamondbacks. 

When Nova pitched in Chase Field on May 14th against this same Diamondbacks team, his performance was, by his standards, subpar: he gave up three runs in six innings. All three runs that he gave up that day came off the bat of Paul Goldschmidt, who hit two home runs. The most home runs per game have been hit in Chase Field this season.

Ivan Nova’s counterpart is Robbie Ray. Who, like Nova struggles at Chase Field. On their previously mentioned May 14th encounter, he gave up four runs in just four innings against the Pirates. But he is a much better pitcher on the road.  

Ray has pitched 14.2 straight shutout innings, all on the road. His road FIP it is just 2.09, So I expect him to have much better numbers against Pittsburgh in PNC Park. Especially because he matches up optimally against Pittsburgh batters as a left-handed power ground ball pitcher.  Against southpaw starters, the Pirates’ are batting just a .214 BA and .679 OPS, compared to .247 and .703 against right-handed starters. 

 

The Verdict

Unless the baseball gods decide differently, everything points to a pitchers’ duel in Pittsburgh. So that we don’t have to mess with either team’s mediocre bullpen, which was responsible for five of seven runs in their series’ opener, I am backing the following play for MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: Under 4, 1hBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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