MLB Betting - The Cubs Have the Cardinals Seeing Red Saturday Afternoon

Chicago Cubs

Saturday, June 3, 2017 2:43 PM GMT

The Cubs ended their embarrassing six-game losing streak yesterday afternoon and can move into back into second place with another victory over St. Louis. The question is will either team score many runs?

Both offenses have not been able to score runs and they are facing starting pitchers who have been keeping men off base, especially in home/road scenarios.

I'm on a pretty good 6-2 run, let's see if I can build on that figure against the MLB odds.

 

Pitching Matchup - Leake vs. Lester

While Mike Leake's record is solid at 5-3, he pitched better than that this season. The right-hander has 2.24 ERA and batter's from the other team are hitting a paltry .214 against him, compared his career numbers of .266. Leake is having his best season in four years and is ahead on virtually every stat for career-bests. Leake has been unbelievable on the road at 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. He is 9-6, with a 3.50 ERA versus Chicago.

Jon Lester (3-3, 3.86) has been two different pitchers home and away and the Cubs hope that continues at the friendly confines today. All of Lester's victories have come at Wrigley Field this season and he's held opposing batters to minuscule .179 batting average. For whatever reason, the left-hander spots his fastball better and his curve has more tilt which results in swings and misses. Against St. Louis, Lester is 5-5, with an impressive 2.04 ERA.

 

Where Have The Offenses Gone?

The usually potent St. Louis offense has been nowhere to be found most of the season. The Cardinals are scoring 4.2 runs a game and with Friday's 3-2 setback, they have hung three deuces in a row and plated only 21 times in the past nine contests. Seeing the Redbirds have scored just 3.4 RPG against lefty starters this season, don't expect the Cards to tally many runs today.

Chicago might have won yesterday, but those three runs gives them a total of 12 in their past seven outings. Chris Bryant is the only Cub even having a decent year, with everyone else really scuffling. It is clear Joe Maddon's guys are pressing, trying to pull everything and taking feeble swings with two strikes on pitches low and away. It does not figure to be easier facing Leake.

 

Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers

Oddsmakers are still pricing the Cubs on potential, not results and since they are still attracting attention, they can hang a -155 on them. These clubs have split the past 22 battles at Wrigley. The OVER is 12-10 in that span and will be posted this morning after checking the Lake Michigan conditions. The Cubs have the second-best bullpen ERA in the NL, with the Cards 14th. However, their save percentages are comparable and Chicago pensters are tied for the third-most home runs surrendered in the league.

 

The Winner Is...

For MLB picks, a number of similarities would seem to make St. Louis a quality live underdog. Nevertheless, I like this system: Favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Cubs, hitting .250 or less, against a NL starting pitcher with ERA of 2.70 or lower, batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games, are 54-17 the last two decades.

Free MLB Play: Chicago -1.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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