MLB Betting: Take Rangers Over Ice Cold & Uninspired Royals In Saturday's Clash

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 30, 2016 8:32 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 30, 2016 8:32 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant previews Saturday’s game between Kansas City and Texas. Join us in reading this compelling betting article which concludes with a MLB pick.

Royals (Kennedy) vs Rangers (Perez) 8:05 PM ET
The Royals and Rangers will play their third of a four-game series in Arlington, Texas on Saturday night. Texas has taken the first two-game the series by virtue of a 4-2 win on Thursday and then prevailing 8-3 last night. Saturday will mark the sixth meeting of the season between these American League clubs, all of those have come since 7/22, and Texas has gone 4-1.

Home/Away Splits Disparity
Texas enters today with a stellar 32-17 (.653) home record. Conversely, Kansas City is an awful 17-34 (.333) on the road, and that includes 1-7 over its last eight away games. Current MLB odds at Bookmaker indicates that Kansas City is a +125 money line underdog today. The Royals are a dreadful 10-28 (.263) this season as a money line road underdog of +100 or more, and that includes an abysmal 3-17 (.150) when +125 to +175.

Starting Pitchers
Ian Kennedy has been terrible in his last two starts for Kansas City. The Royals right-handed hurler compiled a mammoth 10.61 ERA in those aforementioned pair of outings. Kennedy has given up 28 home runs through 20 starts this year, and 18 of those came in just 66 2/3 innings pitched on the road. His propensity to allow the long ball is a huge concern regarding today’s game, considering Texas has gone 13-4 in 2016 against pitchers allowing 1.0 or more home runs per start.

Martin Perez has been extremely shaky over the course of his preceding four starts. However, the vast majority of his struggles have come on the road. As a matter of fact, Perez is a profitable 7-3 through ten home team starts and collected a superb 2.69 ERA whole doing so.


Money Line Betting Angle

  • MLB betting odds at Pinnacle currently lists Texas as a -128 money line favorite
  • Texas has a poor .316 team OBP in 2016
  • Texas pitcher Martin Perez has a large 7.64 ERA during his prior three starts
  • The Royals have a bullpen WHIP of 1.28 this year

Any American League home team (Texas) that’s -100 to -150 on the money line, possessing an OBP of .320 or less, and has a pitcher with an ERA of 7.50 or worse over his last three starts, versus an opponent with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or less, resulted in those teams going 90-41 (68.7%) since 1997. As a matter of fact, this exact betting angle has gone 40-13 (75.5%) since 2014.


Final Take and Pick
Kansas City is 1-6 during its last seven and 6-16 in their previous 22 games. It’s been widely publicized that the Royals will be a seller before the trade deadline. There’s a combination of disappointment uncertainty, and lack of confidence in the Royals clubhouse right now. Contrariwise, Texas is the AL West leader, and will undoubtedly be a major buyer prior to Monday’s deadline at 3:00 PM ET. I’m going to have a small lean toward the home team for one of my Saturday MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Rangers -118
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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