MLB Betting: Take Marlins To Win In Their Visit To New York For Series' Game 3 vs. Mets

Jason Lake

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 12:03 PM GMT

The Marlins put a big-time hurt on the Mets Monday night. Game 2 of their three-game set goes Tuesday night with the Mets favored on the MLB odds board.

Jason's 2016 record as of April 12: 4-2 ML (+1.81 units)
 

Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. The Miami Marlins (3-3 SU, +0.17 units) have taken the first two games of their three-game set against the defending National League pennant winners, the New York Mets (2-5 SU, -5.90 units). They took a bite out of the Big Apple Tuesday night, winning 2-1 as +116 road dogs on the closing line; sadly, reliever Jim Henderson took the loss after Noah Syndergaard had pitched seven strong innings, allowing one run and fanning 12 Marlins. Our deepest regrets.

As it turns out, the Mets are in grave danger of losing Wednesday's series finale (1:10 p.m. ET). They're -130 favorites on our MLB odds boards as we go to press, but thanks to some scheduling issues, New York will be giving long reliever Logan Verrett a spot start. The Marlins counter with promising southpaw Adam Conley. The total for Wednesday's matinee is 7.5 runs, with the 'Under' priced at -120, so maybe this pitching matchup will be competitive after all.

 

Verrettasium
At least Verrett (4.21 FIP lifetime) won't be completely out of his element. He spent two years starting for the Baylor Bears before going to New York in the third round of the 2011 MLB Draft. Then Verrett made 80 starts in the Mets farm system, performing well enough to get scooped up by the Baltimore Orioles two years ago in the Rule 5 draft. He ended up back in New York last year via the Texas Rangers, and made four starts toward the end of the season; the Mets split the pair for a deficit of 1.74 units.


The Marlins weren't sure themselves who'd start Wednesday, thanks to Wei-Yin Chen and his touchy elbow, but Conley (3.83 FIP lifetime) has been given the tentative go-ahead to face the Mets. Conley made his major-league debut last July and wound up starting 11 games, earning 7.47 units on a team record of 8-3. His first start in 2016 wasn't so good, though. Conley gave up three earned runs to the Washington Nationals in the first inning before the rain started coming down. Washington ended up winning that game 6-4 as a -137 home chalk.

 

Fantasy Corner
With two relatively new starters on the mound, neither team has accumulated enough at-bats against them to pinpoint any one hitter for your fantasy line-up. We're recommending the Marlins for your MLB picks, so this looks like a fine time to parachute in a set-up guy who might add to your hold totals. Bryan Morris (3.64 FIP, 18 holds last year) should be available after he wasn't used in Tuesday's 2-1 victory over the Mets (-126). Will Miami end up sweeping this series? We can only hope.

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Free MLB Pick: Miami +123
Best Line Offered: at Heritage