MLB Betting: Stick To Home Favorites In Padres vs. Mariners Game

Jason Lake

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 31, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

The San Diego Padres have dropped seven of their last eight games. They're the underdogs on Tuesday's MLB odds board for Game 2 of their series with the Seattle Mariners.

Dude, where's my profit? We've honked our last four MLB picks here at the home office, all of them underdogs that looked like they were dripping with betting value. Fortunately, it doesn't look like we'll have that problem with Tuesday's matinee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) between the San Diego Padres and the Seattle Mariners. The Padres are +155 road dogs on our MLB odds board at press time, but they've lost seven of their last eight. And the Mariners have been making money this year.


Midlife Crisis
Let's get some scientists on the case. FiveThirtyEight projects Seattle (29-21, +3.04 units) to win Tuesday's game 63 percent of the time. That leaves 37 percent for San Diego (20-32, –4.53 units), if my math is correct. Plug 37 percent into our life-affirming SBR Betting Odds Converter, and you get +170 out the other end. No sale.

That doesn't leave a lot of betting room for the Mariners, though. Tuesday features a pitching duel between a quality pair of 6-foot-3 northpaws: James Shields (3.90 FIP) for San Diego, and Hisashi Iwakuma (3.99 FIP) for Seattle. They're both getting up in age, mind you, at 34 and 35 respectively, and they've both lost money for their supporters this year.

Iwakuma (5-5 team record, –1.48 units) is less likely to drop the cash this time. Current Padres have a puny .263 OPS against the former All-Star, hitting 4-of-49 with 21 strikeouts and one walk. Shields (2-8, –5.67 units) has had much less success against the M's, who have abused him over the years for a .893 OPS. Maybe this will give us enough courage to recommend Seattle at the best price on the board. As long as it's better than –170. Not many books are offering better at press time.

Fantasy Corner
Seattle's tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, not bothering anybody, so there are plenty of Mariner bats available for your fantasy team. Sadly, Robinson Cano (.941 OPS) is not one of them. But you can probably get your hands on OF Franklin Gutierrez (.780 OPS). He's good when healthy, and he's only owned in 0.6 percent of ESPN leagues. Gutierrez should be active Tuesday after taking a maintenance day in Monday's 9-3 win over San Diego (+206 away).

It's interesting that FiveThirtyEight aren't so bullish on Iwakuma and the M's in this situation. Their Elo-based system doesn't appear to take batter-vs.-pitcher matchups into account, or at least not fully, if I'm reading the fine print correctly. We're tempted to bail and recommend Under 7.5 in this spot; Shields (.305 BABIP) and especially Iwakuma (.326 BABIP) have both seen more than their share of worm-burners get through the infield this year. Instead, we'll just go with a very small bet to reflect the (perhaps) very small profit margin available on the Mariners.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993179, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Mariners -164
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Record: 8-10 ML, 2-0 Totals (+0.29 units)

comment here