MLB Betting: San Diego Padres Team Profile 2016

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, March 15, 2016 8:52 PM GMT

We are three weeks away from the 2016 MLB season and the LT Profits Group continue to profile of all 30 MLB teams to help with your MLB picks, today profiling the San Diego Padres.

 

We are three weeks away from the 2016 MLB season and the LT Profits Group continue to profile of all 30 MLB teams to help with your MLB picks, today profiling the San Diego Padres. We are now actually less than three weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, as it begins with three games Sunday, April 3rd, with the rest of the league starting play Monday, April 4th. In an attempt to help with your MLB picks, we are here profiling all 30 Major League Baseball teams before the start of the season and today we take a look at the San Diego Padres, who finished in fourth place in the National League West in 2015 at 74-88.

To kick things off, here is a summary of the San Diego betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that these stats are always for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle.

 

San Diego Padres 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record  39-42  35-46  74-88
Units Won/Lost    -11.45  -7.79  -19.24
Over/Under  45-32-4    48-30-3    93-62-7  

 

The Padres were highly touted at the start of last season after spending more money than they ever have on free agents, but they greatly disappointed finishing 14 games under .500. Something that sticks out is the success of the San Diego ‘over’ last season, even in probably the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the National League in Petco Park.

Moving on, here is the Padres’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.

 

2015 San Diego Padres Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .243  30th
Runs per Game  4.01  23rd
Home Runs  148  19th
OPS  .685  28th
ERA  4.09  20th
WHIP  1.31  16th
Bullpen ERA  4.02  23rd

 

Remember what we said about the Padres being one of the best ‘over’ teams in the league? Well, it was not because of the modest hitting, but rather because of a disappointing pitching staff that somehow posted an ERA over 4.00 despite pitching half of its games in a spacious stadium. That fact combined with normally deflated totals in games at Petco led to the amazing ‘over’ success, as oddsmakers were a tad slow to adjust the totals upwards.

Up next, we look at various San Diego Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.

 

2016 San Diego Padres World Series Futures

   Odds
5Dimes  +12000  
Bovada  +10000  
BetOnline    +12500  
Heritage  +11500  

 

After having a “go for it now” approach that led to disaster last season, the Padres toned things down this winter where the biggest move they made was trading closer Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox for four very good prospects. While that bodes better for the future, not much improvement is expected this season with the early posted San Diego win total of 74 exactly matching last year’s actual win total.

 

2016 San Diego Padres Batting Forecast
The Padres spent a lot of money on Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Will Meyers last year, and the move did not pay off as the San Diego outfield combined to produce a 4.6 WAR, which definitely did not fulfill expectations given what the aforementioned trio made in salary and also did not make up for being one of the worst defensive outfields in baseball.

The defense should be better this year with John Jay and Melvin Upton being above average fielders, but the offense should struggle again. Justin Upton is the only Padre with a ZiPS projection of a better than 3.0 WAR at 3.3, and the fact that the second highest projected WAR on the team belongs to Derek Norris (2.9), who is not exactly a franchise player, should give you an indication of the state of the offense.

 

2016 San Diego Padres Pitching Forecast
Another big signing for the Padres last year was pitcher James Shields, and he too underperformed by posting a WAR of less than 2.0 for the first time in nine years. ZiPS has him bouncing back this season with a 2.6 WAR, second best on the team behind new ace (according to ZiPS) Tyson Ross at 3.3. Unfortunately the rest of the starting rotation leaves much to be desired, especially of the regression of Andrew Cashner last year was not an anomaly.

The bullpen added Fernando Rodney to replace Kimbrel as the closer, which is a step backwards, although the Padres did also add a serviceable left-handed arm in Drew Pomeranz, a swing-man whose most important usage may be in the bullpen as a situational southpaw.