MLB Betting: Run Line Plays for August

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 4, 2015 8:20 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2015 8:20 PM GMT

We compile a report on the best and worst run line results from for the YTD through July 31st, 2015 by tracking results for each day to determine if there is value playing a game at the run line odds.

For the last 6 years, I have kept a daily log of run line results for each team, home and away. These unique records are divided into the following 4 categories: 

 

- Margin of victory at home for each team in home wins

- Margin of loss at home for each team in home defeats

- Margin of victory away for each team in away wins

- Margin of loss away for each team in away defeats

 

One of the most profitable ways to use run line betting is to translate favorites into underdogs.  Laying 1 ½ runs can turn a large home favorite into a small underdog proposition. Likewise, a medium sized road favorite can be translated into an underdog bet against the MLB odds. This is especially valuable in the month of August, as prices begin to rise when super-surgers are playing towel-tossers following the trade deadline, August 1st. Let’s take a look at the results for the YTD through July 31st 2015. Despite this year’s scoring, reduced to approximately 8 RPG in MLB, the number of games decided by a single run has stayed constant in both home and road victories. This year through July 31st, 555 of 837 home games (66.3%) have been decided by 2 or more runs. For road teams, 518 of 793 victories (74%) have come by 2 or more runs. That means that much like previous years, approximately 70% of all MLB games are decided by 2 or more runs. The reason for the discrepancy between home and road numbers is that the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are leading.  

Armed with the above knowledge and the margin of victory chart for each team, home and away, we are able to ferret out where the value occurs in run line wagers. The following 4 paragraphs will take the 4 categories above and show you where the highest and lowest percentages have been for each team, when they win or lose the game, home or away.  

 

Road Teams Who WIN Their Road Games 80% or More of the Time by 2 or More Runs
New York Mets – 14 of 17 road wins (82%) by 2 or more runs

St. Louis Cardinals – 22 of 27 road wins (81%) by 2 or more runs

Los Angeles Dodgers – 19 of 23 road wins (83%) by 2 or more runs

New York Yankees – 23 of 28 road wins (82%) by 2 or more runs

Baltimore Orioles – 18 of 21 road wins (86%) by 2 or more runs

Toronto Blue Jays – 19 of 22 road wins (86%) by 2 or more runs

Minnesota Twins – 17 of 20 road wins (85%) by 2 or more runs

Los Angeles Angels – 19 of 23 road wins (83%) by 2 or more runs

 

Home Teams Who LOSE Their Home Games 80% or More of the Time by 2 or More Runs
Atlanta Braves – 19 of 21 home losses (90%) by 2 or more runs

Washington Nationals – 17 of 20 home losses (85%) by 2 or more runs

Milwaukee Brewers – 27 of 31 home losses (87%) by 2 or more runs

San Francisco Giants – 19 of 23 home losses (83%) by 2 or more runs

San Diego Padres – 21 of 25 home losses (84%) by 2 or more runs

Boston Red Sox – 24 of 27 home losses (89%) by 2 or more runs

Minnesota Twins – 18 of 21 home losses (86%) by 2 or more runs

Cleveland Indians – 26 of 32 home losses (81%) by 2 or more runs

Kansas City Royals – 16 of 18 home losses (89%) by 2 or more runs

Texas Rangers – 23 of 28 home losses (82%) by 2 or more runs

Seattle Mariners – 25 of 31 home losses (81%) by 2 or more runs

 

Home Teams Who WIN Their Home Games 72% or More of the Time by 2 or More Runs
San Francisco Giants – 23 of 30 home wins (77%) by 2 or more runs

San Diego Padres – 18 of 24 home wins (75%) by 2 or more runs

Tampa Bay Rays – 21 of 27 home wins (78%) by 2 or more runs

Toronto Blue Jays – 23 of 31 home wins (74%) by 2 or more runs

Cleveland Indians – 16 of 20 home wins (80%) by 2 or more runs

Kansas City Royals – 26 of 34 home wins (76%) by 2 or more runs

Oakland A’s – 16 of 21 home wins (76%) by 2 or more runs

Houston Astros – 27 of 36 home wins (75%) by 2 or more runs

 

Road Teams Who LOSE Their Away Games 72% or More of the Time by 2 or More Runs
Philadelphia Phillies – 29 of 38 away losses (76%) by 2 or more runs

Milwaukee Brewers – 22 of 29 away losses (76%) by 2 or more runs

Colorado Rockies – 23 of 31 away losses (74%) by 2 or more runs

Boston Red Sox – 23 of 32 away losses (72%) by 2 or more runs

Chicago White Sox – 21 of 29 away losses (72%) by 2 or more runs

Cleveland Indians – 16 of 22 away losses (73%) by 2 or more runs

Los Angeles Angels – 20 of 26 away losses (77%) by 2 or more runs

 

As you can see from the above paragraphs, many of these teams appear in multiple categories. There are 5 teams, all in the American League, who win their games by 2 or more runs, both home and away, by the prescribed percentages. Those teams are Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland and Houston. Consider playing these teams on the run line, when they are installed as the favorite in the game. In a similar way, there are 3 teams, who lose their games by 2 or more runs, both home and away, by the prescribed percentages. These teams are Milwaukee, Boston and Cleveland. Look to play AGAINST these teams using the run line.  

 

How to Use the Above Numbers
The numbers above can be very profitable money producers. My advice is to handicap the game first. When you have good reasons to back a PLAY ON team or fade a go AGAINST team, then you should consider using the run line wager with your MLB picks. Should a PLAY ON team be matched up vs. a PLAY AGAINST team, you should feel more comfortable making your run line wager.

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