MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets Team Profile 2016

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, February 17, 2016 9:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2016 9:39 PM UTC

The LT Profits Group are providing team profiles for every MLB team for the 2016 season that can be referred to when making MLB picks. Today they look at the New York Mets.

Believe it or not we are only about six weeks away from the 2016 MLB season, which begins with three games on Sunday, April 3rd with the rest of the league starting play the following day, Monday, April 4th. So to help with your MLB picks, we are here presenting team profiles for all 30 Major League Baseball teams before opening day. Today we profile the New York Mets, who won the National League East at 90-72 in 2015 before advancing all the way to the World Series.

To begin, here is a summary of the New York betting statistics for the 2015 season. Take note that all of these stats are for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle Sports.


New York Mets 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record   49-32  41-40  90-72
Units Won/Lost    +4.84  +1.05  +5.89
Over/Under  38-41-2    46-31-4    84-72-6  


The Mets were almost the Amazing Mets again in 2015, except that they fell short in the World Series losing to the Kansas City Royals in five games. Still, a young starting pitching rotation that is the envy of all of baseball carried them to their first 90-win season since 2006 and ultimately to their first World Series appearance since 2000. From a betting standpoint, the +5.89 units of net profit for the Mets last year was the eighth best in baseball.

Moving on, up next is the Mets’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.


2015 New York Mets Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .244  28th
Runs per Game  4.22  17th
Home Runs  177  8th
OPS  .712  20th
ERA  3.45  4th
WHIP  1.18  2nd
Bullpen ERA  3.48  11th


In Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and rookie Steven Matz, the Mets had four starting pitchers all in their early to mid 20s that all throw at least 95 MPH and that all have excellent control for their ages, so the lofty ERA and WHIP rankings were not a surprise. While it was certainly the pitching that carried this team, it did not hurt that blasting 177 home runs offensively helped overcome some shortcomings in the offense.

Finally, we now examine various New York Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.


2016 New York Mets World Series Futures

5Dimes  +850   
Bovada  +800   
BetOnline    +900   
Heritage  +1100  


The Mets are the consensus third choice from the National League to win the 2016 World Series behind the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants, and the early Mets’ win total of 88 released by sportsbook director Steve Mikkelson would be good enough to repeat as National League East Champions by one game over the Washington Nationals (87), with Mikkelson projecting just one National League team (San Francisco) to reach 90 wins.


2016 New York Mets Batting Forecast
The biggest news this past off-season for the Mets was the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, as the offense perked up in a big way when New York acquired him at the trading deadline last year and there is a sharp drop-off on the projected offensive production this year between Cespedes and the rest of the lineup. Without Cespedes, the Mets would have had a competent lineup but one lacking that one true star needed to carry the offense.

While it is virtually a given that Cespedes should have a nice season, perhaps the best candidate to have a breakout season among the rest of the lineup is young Michael Conforto, who was still playing at the High-A level of the minor leagues at the start of last year and who is suddenly a candidate for 25 homers and 90 RBI this season. Lucas Duda is another power threat, but beyond that this is a lineup whose sum has to exceed its parts.


2016 New York Mets Pitching Forecast
To the surprise of nobody, the projected WAR this year according to the ZiPS projections of the top four New York starters (assuming Matz to be the fourth starter) is the best of any team’s first four starters in all of baseball, and even if you stop at the top three starters, the collective projected WAR is second in the majors slightly behind the frontline trio of the Cubs. Thus, opposing teams will be facing live arms day and day out, especially when Zack Wheeler returns.

Unfortunately the bullpen does not appear to be as strong as a whole, although the Mets are set at the closer spot with Jeurys Familia, another flamethrower coming off of a season where he went 43-for-48 in save chances with a 1.85 ERA and 86 strikeouts vs. 19 walks in 78 innings. Still, New York could use another piece or two leading up to Familia.

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