MLB Betting Preview: Boston Red Sox Team Profile 2016

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, March 18, 2016 6:50 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 18, 2016 6:50 PM UTC

We are two weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, and the LT Profits Group are profiling all 30 teams to help with your MLB picks, continuing with the Boston Red Sox.


The 2016 MLB season is now just two weeks away as it kicks off with three games on Sunday, April 3rd, with the rest of the league starting play Monday, April 4th. So in an attempt to help with your MLB picks, we are here profiling all 30 Major League Baseball teams in advance of opening day, continuing those profiles now by looking at the Boston Red Sox, who finished fifth and last in the American League East in 2015 at 78-84.

To begin, here is a summary of the Boston betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that these stats are always for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle.


Boston Red Sox 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record  43-38   35-46  78-84
Units Won/Lost    -2.27  -4.24  -6.51
Over/Under  41-37-3    42-36-3    83-73-6  


Many experts expected the Red Sox to go from “worst to first” in the American League last season after some big free agent signings, but instead they repeated their last place finish from 2014, in fact finishing in last place for the third time in four years. Oddly, the one time in that span that the Red Sox did not finish last, they won the 2013 World Series!

Up next, we take a look at the Red Sox’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.


2015 Boston Red Sox Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .265  6th
Runs per Game  4.62  4th
Home Runs  161  15th
OPS  .740  6th
ERA  4.34  25th
WHIP  1.36  23rd
Bullpen ERA  4.24  26th


Boston did score a lot of runs last season finishing fourth in the majors with their 4.62 tallies per game, a nice increase over the 3.91 runs the Red Sox averaged the previous year. Unfortunately the pitching was a disappointment as the team did not really have an ace in the starting rotation. The bullpen was also an issue outside of closer Koji Uehara, and he will turn 41 years of age on opening day.

And now we examine various Boston Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.


2016 Boston Red Sox World Series Futures

5Dimes  +1050  
Bovada  +1400  
BetOnline    +1400  
Heritage  +1000  


For the second straight year, there is a lot of optimism surrounding a team that finished in last place the previous season, but in this case that enthusiasm may be valid with the Red Sox potentially being the most improved team in the American League. In fact, Boston is one of the two favorites to represent the AL in the World Series at practically every sportsbook you look.


2016 Boston Red Sox Batting Forecast
The Red Sox did not make any real changes offensively, but that could be a good thing as offense was not a problem last year. Best of all, the top two WAR predictions this season according to the ZiPS projections go to a pair of 23-year-olds, which bodes well for the Boston future.

Mookie Betts is a budding star that forecasts to a spiffy 5.4 WAR while likely flirting with 20 homers and 20 stolen bases, while fellow youngster Xander Bogaerts is predicted to have a 3.0 WAR as a shortstop. The third highest predicted WAR belongs to veteran Dustin Pedroia, who is expected to bounce back well after missing much of last season due to assorted injuries.


2016 Boston Red Sox Pitching Forecast
The pitching is where the Red Sox made the biggest moves, the moves that could make them World Series candidates immediately. First they signed one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball in southpaw David Price, who obviously becomes the immediate ace of the staff. Then, youngster Eduardo Rodriquez could be a great second starter after pitching brilliantly at times after being called up in the middle of last season.

As for the bullpen, the Red Sox also traded for one of the very best closers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel, a move that will move Uehara to a set-up role in which he should excel, making Boston almost unhittable in the latter innings. And do not forget about another nice bullpen addition in Carson Smith, giving the unit excellent depth along with Junichi Tazawa and suddenly turning a weakness last year into a team strength.

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