MLB Betting Picks: St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, May 23, 2017 2:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 23, 2017 2:33 PM UTC

MLB's best pitcher Clayton Kershaw duels with the resurgent Lance Lynn and the Cardinals Tuesday night (10:10 p.m. ET) in the opener of a three-game homestand at Dodger Stadium. The odd are historically steep for this one.

St. Louis Cardinals (22-19)

The Cardinals have designed some great teams, and specifically great rotations, over the last 15 years. This has kept the betting market honest. During this span, St. Louis has gone off higher than +200 odds or more just three times, never more than +210. Oddsmakers opened St. Louis +245 for Tuesday night, as it squares off against the mighty Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium. Early adjustments are helping the number drop, but the Cardinals will likely go off at their highest odds in decades.

Lance Lynn gets the nod for manager Mike Matheny. Lynn, who missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, is 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA through eight starts this year. Throughout the right-hander’s seven-year pro career, he is 3-1 with a 4.35 ERA in six outings versus the Dodgers. Lynn has yet to give up a home run in 31 innings pitched. Lynn is fastball first, but is working in a cutter more often this season.

The Cardinals are 15-18 SU behind Lynn as a road dog in his career. Bettors have lost two percent profit at +121 average odds. The club is just 1-6 SU when taking the first pith at +130 odds or greater. Run support has been an issue in this spot, scoring just 2.3 per game.

 Los Angeles Dodgers (26-19)

L.A. has dropped three straight at Dodger Stadium for the first time since April 2016. The club has turned the venue into a fortress. Not including the postseason, it is 59-23 SU at home in the last calendar year. The team is going off -191 average odds in the betting market, rewarding backers with 14 percent profit. No franchise has returned more under these conditions. Only the World Series champion Cubs go off a shorter price on average.

Much of the short MLB odds come courtesy of today’s starter Kershaw. Investors are asked to lay -296 on average backing the three-time Cy Young winner in this span. The Dodgers are 9-1 SU, the bullpen gifting the Giants a 4-3 win in his last home start.

Kershaw is 7-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in nine starts this season. He’s struggled against good Cardinals teams in the past, going just 6-5 in 15 career starts. St Louis’.228 batting average against is the highest amongst any team in which Kershaw has more than three-lifetime starts.

 Final Analysis

The Dodgers are 32-4 SU in Kershaw’s last 36 home starts with odds greater than -200; difficult to bet against that. The run line record is 22-14 at average odds of -110. This number is more manageable, showing a return of 18 percent overall. The Cardinals will be lucky to cross the plate more than twice. Dodgers on the run line is the pick.

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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