MLB Betting Picks: Back Over In Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers

Charles Stark

Monday, May 29, 2017 1:23 PM UTC

Monday, May. 29, 2017 1:23 PM UTC

For Memorial Day in major league baseball we are going to take a look at the Texas Rangers versus the Tampa Bay Rays in Arlington. When looking at the two pitchers ERA the total for this game is little bit surprising so is there value on backing the over the under?

Tampa Bay Rays

Erasmo Ramirez comes in with a 3.00 ERA and 0.89 whip with most of his work coming out of the bullpen this season. He has been pretty decent in just a few starts this season so the number for this game is a little bit surprising considering that it is so high. In his last start versus the Angels he allowed just two earned runs off of four hits in six innings, so again to me it looks like the odds makers are on top of something that the public is not. At the plate Tampa Bay has some decent numbers across the board but nothing that screams that this game is going to be well over the total. Currently they are hitting just .246 as a team and averaging just 4.52 runs per game ranking them 16th and 17th in the major leagues respectively. Also, we’re talking about a team that averages 10.35 strikeouts per game which ranks last in the major leagues. For me this looks like a classic case of backing the odds makers with a little bit of a reverse play in proportion to the numbers.


Texas Rangers

Martin Perez will get the start for Texas and comes in with a 3.77 ERA and 1.53 whip on the season. Despite the high whip he is been decent in his last five starts allowing just 13 earned runs in over 35 innings of work, which again brings into the question the size of this line. Although his career numbers are worse than his current numbers this season there is nothing that really seems to make backing over the total on this game appealing. Offensively, despite being one of the hotter teams over the past month, Texas’ numbers are pretty pedestrian hitting just .237 as a team and averaging just 7.84 hits per game ranking them 26Th and 27th in the major leagues respectively. As well, their power numbers rank in the bottom third of the league, and like Tampa Bay, they do strikeout quite a bit ranking 20th in strikeouts per game. 

 MLB Odds

Oddsmakers have come out with a total of 9.5 for this contest and for my MLB pick I’m going to back over the total. Statistically across the board this number does make a lot of sense which makes me so believe that odds makers are top of something. In this type of scenario I believe it’s always smart to go the other way so look for a lot of runs.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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