MLB Betting Pick: Antonio Senzatela Takes The Mound, Should You Bet The Rockies?

Jason Lake

Wednesday, June 21, 2017 7:57 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 21, 2017 7:57 PM UTC

The Colorado Rockies have an intriguing pitching prospect. Too bad the baseball odds are pointing at the Arizona Diamondbacks this Thursday. Read on to get our full MLB Pick

Who is Antonio Senzatela? We asked the musical question last month when Senzatela and the Colorado Rockies were facing the Seattle Mariners; he’s a right-handed pitcher from Venezuela who has started his big-league career with a bang, earning National League Rookie of the Month honors in May. However, Senzatela also has some dubious peripheral stats, and we were right to fade him against the Mariners. They won 5-0 as –180 home faves on the closing line, after we recommended the M’s at –138.

The Rockies have won two of Senzatela’s three starts since then, but only one of those games was a quality start. His next game is Thursday (3:10 p.m. ET) against fellow northpaw Zack Godley and the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. Colorado is a –135 favorite on the MLB odds board at press time. Shall we keep plucking that chicken?

Godley and Cream

Probably. FiveThirtyEight project the Rockies to win 55 percent of the time, which converts to “fair” betting odds of –122 on the SBR Betting Odds Converter. Regression has already started to wash over Senzatela (4.72 FIP); his BABIP has jumped from .249 when we first checked in to .267 today. And his run support has dipped from 7.40 per game to 7.14. Those are still crazy peripherals.

Unfortunately for us, Godley (3.16 FIP) is also benefitting from some dumb luck on the mound, including a .252 BABIP and 82 percent of baserunners stranded. But at least Godley has a strong FIP to back that up, as well as four decent pitches that he’s mixing wisely to generate a high number of groundballs: 60.3 percent, compared to 48 percent for Senzatela.

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51.7% of balls in play allowed by Zack Godley in 2017 have been hit at a launch angle under 0°. 60.3% GB% overall #fantasybaseball #DBacks

— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) June 21, 2017

That makes us even more inclined to recommend Arizona for your MLB picks. Just about anything hit in the air at Coors Field is a threat to leave the yard, especially on a hot day without much humidity. That’s the forecast for Thursday, so let’s ride the Snakes one more time, and may the sphere be with you.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks +110
Best Line: at The Greek

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