MLB Betting: Philadelphia Phillies Team Profile 2016

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 18, 2016 8:29 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 18, 2016 8:29 PM UTC

The LT Profits Group continue to provide profiles for every MLB team for the 2016 season that can be referred to when making MLB picks. Today we look at the Philadelphia Phillies.  


The 2016 MLB season is not really that far off as it begins about six weeks from now with three games on Sunday, April 3rd, with the rest of the league then beginning play on Monday, April 4th. In an effort ff to help with your MLB picks, we are presenting team profiles for all 30 Major League Baseball teams in advance of opening day. Today we profile the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished fifth and last in the National League East in 2015 at 63-99.


Here is a summary of the Philadelphia betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that all of these stats are for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle Sports.


Philadelphia Phillies 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record  37-44  26-55  63-99
Units Won/Lost    +2.59  -11.01  -8.42
Over/Under  45-28-8    41-36-4    86-64-12  


No team in baseball lost 100 games last season, meaning that the Phillies had the worst record in all of MLB at 63-99. The rather surprising part of that was blindly betting the Phillies at home actually netted a profit of +2.59 units despite the lackluster 37-44 record, mainly because Philadelphia was an underdog in almost every game. The Phils were a great ‘over’ bet too at 86-64-12 overall, with the “credit” there going to their lousy starting pitching.


Next up is the Phillies’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.


2015 Philadelphia Phillies Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .249  24th
Runs per Game  3.86  27th
Home Runs  130  28th
OPS  .684  29th
ERA  4.69  29th
WHIP  1.45  29th
Bullpen ERA  3.81  17th


When a team is second to last in the Major Leagues on OPS offensively and in team ERA on the pitching end, finishing with 99 losses is easy to understand. The bullpen was actually respectable though with Jonathan Papelbon having a great year as the closer until he was traded away, and then with Kenneth Giles doing well in that role the rest of last season. Unfortunately that bullpen did not have enough leads to protect with the starters doing so poorly.

And now we move on to various Philadelphia Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.


2016 Philadelphia Phillies World Series Futures

5 Dimes  +35000  
Bovada  +10000  
BetOnline    +25000  
Heritage  +29800  


The Phillies are the consensus longest shots on the board in the entire Major Leagues to win the World Series this year (Bovada is a notable exception), so the oddsmakers do not foresee much improvement over 2015. Interestingly though, the Phillies’ early posted win total of 66½ is not the lowest in baseball, as that dubious distinction belongs to the Atlanta Braves at 65.


2016 Philadelphia Phillies Batting Forecast
While the Phillies still have veterans in the lineup like Ryan Howard and Jeff Francoeur, the time has finally come to fill out the rest of the lineup with a ton of youngsters. In fact, Howard and Francoeur each project out to an identical -0.7 WAR according to the ZiPS projections, so Philadelphia will probably need some of the young players to step up big time to avoid reaching 100 losses.

The most promising of the bunch is Odubel Herrera, who is just one year removed from being a Rule 5 selection. Herrera is also a good defensive center fielder, so he should get plenty of at-bats with which to try and reach his vast potential. A couple of other youngsters in Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford are the only other two Phillies’ batters that project for a WAR higher than 2.0.


2016 Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Forecast
The starting pitching was awful last year and we do not expect much improvement this year with the additions of the likes of Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Harrison. Aaron Nola had a fine rookie season and he will probably serve as the ace of the staff at the ripe age of 23, but while he is very poised for his age and has very good command, his arm speed is nothing to write home about.

As for the bullpen, well regression is certainly expected there as we have no idea at this time who will fill what role after Giles was traded away to the Houston Astros in a seven player deal. Our best guess is that David Hernandez is the favorite to close, but J.J. Putz. Andrew Bailey, Ernesto Frieri and Edward Mujica have also all closed at one time or another throughout their careers. We still feel that Hernandez has the most upside though.

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