MLB Betting - Orioles vs Blue Jays AL Wild Card Pick

Baltimore Orioles Player Runs the Bases

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 1:13 PM GMT

We head to Toronto for the first game of the 2016 postseason. The Blue Jays have been made a decent home favorite in the MLB Odds for this matchup, however, Is there any value in backing the visiting Baltimore Orioles?

 Baltimore Orioles

Chris Tillman gets the start for Baltimore and comes in with a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 whip while allowing just one earned run off of six hits in six innings at Toronto in his last start. Despite that last start Tillman has a career 7.01 ERA at Toronto which does not bode well for Baltimore's chances. Still, he has pitched very well on the road this season with a 2.97 ERA, 8-3 record, and batters hitting just .219 against him. As well, he has been stellar on turf allowing just four earned runs in 25 innings pitched in four starts this year. Usually, this is the kind of matchup  where a lot of these numbers become meaningless and it simply comes down to a few key at-bats. For me, I believe Tillman gives Baltimore a nice opportunity to win this game though even in Toronto. Along with a solid offense in this kind of game any plus money value is the way to go in my opinion.

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Blue Jays and comes in with a 4.37 ERA and 1.29 whip but allowed four earned runs in seven innings his last outing versus Baltimore. I think value wise it is a good idea to go ahead and go against him considering this season he has a 7.04 ERA versus the Orioles in four game starts allowing 18 earned runs in 23 innings. What really is eye-popping though is the fact the Orioles have 33 hits off him in that span and are batting .344 against him overall this season. Still, despite those numbers it makes sense for Toronto to be the favorite in this spot because they are at home and offensively they are very tough at the Rogers Centre. Again, as mentioned above the numbers are kind of meaningless in this type of matchup so it just comes down to value. I don't believe Toronto is coming into this game with the same type of magic they went into the playoffs last season so it seems oddsmakers have made them just a bit too big of a favorite.

 

MLB odds
Oddsmakers have made Baltimore a +135 underdog or better across the board. You can check SBR for the best lines like grabbing them at +140 at 5 Dimes. For my MLB pick I'm going to take Baltimore on the plus money line because this game is essentially a coin flip in my opinion.

MLB record: 48-44-3

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +140
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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