MLB Betting: Obvious Flaws in Postseason Contenders

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 5:26 PM GMT

Among the elements needed to be a success baseball handicapper and or have winning MLB picks is objectivity. This is the ability to determine if the glass is half full or half empty.

Depending on one's personality, most things in life are "Awesome" or either have the other point of view, "well that sucks." When attempting to beat the sportsbooks' betting odds, you need a little of both, one to understand a player's or teams strength's, but also to realize they have flaws and there are definite reasons why the playoffs start with 10 teams, yet only one wins eight or nine postseason games.

For this article, we will be like the person who plays 'dark' at the craps table, betting against the shooter, believing they will lose far more often than they will win. Here is a review of some pimples of the teams with the best records and what could prevent them from winning the World Series.

 

St. Louis and Kansas City Should Meet in World Series But...
Outside of the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, when making MLB picks, if you follow the winning and losing of all the teams, that is where the cash is. The Cardinals and Royals have the two best records in the majors and are also the two most profitable as Play On teams.

However, the postseason is a different animal with strength vs. strength and despite what kind of year the Cardinals have enjoyed, they still only currently rank 22nd in all of baseball in runs scored at 4.0 per contest. Granted, the Cards only surrender 3.0 RPG, but in the playoffs a brief hitting slump can level the playing field or if one or two starters for St. Louis have a mediocre outing, suddenly their backs could be against the wall.

Having seen Kansas City in spring training, I saw the confidence this team found by taking San Francisco to seven games and to the final out before losing in the Fall Classic. It is common knowledge the Royals have an outstanding bullpen and its offense is much better than a year ago. Nevertheless, they picked up Johnny Cueto for a reason and their starting pitching ERA is just seventh in the American League. If K.C. does not win it all, chances are it will be the starting pitchers that failed them.

 

Toronto, Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees Can Be Had
A script could be written that the Blue Jays are the most frightening team in the majors. We have witnessed an offense that is relentless and can blow up an opposing team's ERA over a series. The Toronto pitching staff has fed off this energy and collectively they lowered their ERA close to four and is all the way up to sixth in that department after ranking 12th in early July. However, the kryptonite is when the games are close for these Supermen and every pitch and out matters, like in the playoffs, and the Jays are 13-24 in one-run outcomes.

The Pirates weak spot is one of two elements. They have not beaten the MLB odds in the playoffs either because they are just a tiny bit less talented than their National League counterparts or they lack the confidence in believing they are better (whether it is true or not) and fail to do so. In either case, unless Pittsburgh believes, they have no shot.

The Yankees are like Toronto, they can score in bunches, have enough starting pitching and generally a solid bullpen. Nonetheless, New York's offense can go into funks and if you do that over four or five games, season over. And despite some talented arms, can the starting pitching, which is listed eighth in ERA in their league, really be counted on in pressure-packed situations?