MLB Betting: Are National League East O/U Odds Over Rated?

Doug Upstone

Monday, May 11, 2015 3:32 PM UTC

Monday, May. 11, 2015 3:32 PM UTC

Our theme week covering baseball continues to help you with your MLB picks and beginning today we trying and understand what to look in totals wagering against the betting odds.

We will update you on the happenings in each division throughout this week. In the National League East as of Monday, every team in the division was an OVER play to this point of the season, which sounds like a very rare occurrence. How could be and will it continue?

Let’s examine the possibilities.


Atlanta is NL’s Top Bet for Totals
For years the Braves had several good offensive clubs, but in today’s world of ‘brand’ marketing, Atlanta was known for their pitching. After years of not restocking the minors with the right draft choices, Atlanta has been acquiring pedestrian starting pitchers and the Braves have become an average squad.

This is easy to understand with journeymen Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill in the starting rotation and with the trade of closer Craig Kimbrel, the Braves are 13th in ERA as a pitching staff in the NL and give up 4.7 runs per game. With the offense led by Freddie Freeman, Atlanta is fifth in the senior circuit in runs scored at 4.4 per game and this all adds to them posting a 20-9 OVER record (we will disregard ties).

Turner Field is primarily thought of by MLB baseball handicappers as pitcher’s park, yet Atlanta is 11-3 OVER there versus the MLB odds. They might not stay at this high a percentage as sportsbooks like GTBets make adjustments, but there is little else to impede the Braves being a regular OVER play.


Washington and Miami Also Solid Totals Plays
As we begin the week, Washington has begun to meet preseason expectations and climbed over .500 by winning 10 of 12. Bryce Harper has been the driving force on offense carrying the team with majestic home runs and extra base hits. The Nationals pitching has been good but not as great as most thought and they are 19-12 OVER after five weeks into the season. About one-third of Washington’s games have been one-sided and they are 5-5 in contests determined by four or more runs. As it turns out this is where the runs have piled up and they are 9-1 OVER in those games. Though the sample is small, the Nats are 6-2 OVER versus left hand starters. If the Washington pitchers live up to reputations this could change, instead we would suggest a wait and see attitude.

Next in line are the Marlins at 18-12 OVER and the reasoning why is very specific if you are making sports picks. Miami is 11-5 OVER on the road has its offense really picks up, scoring 4.5 runs per game compared to 4.0 at Marlins Park. In this mix is how they have swung the bats versus lefty’s and they are 4-0-2 OVER against portsiders. Look for Miami to make a move in the standings soon since they are 10-4 when there is a four or more run differential and the Fish are 11-1 OVER in those games!


Philly and New York Close to Norm
Philadelphia is 15-11 OVER and if this makes sense to sports bettors it is a matter of interpreting the numbers before placing your MLB picks. On one hand you can wonder how they could have such a record when scoring a baseball-worst 2.8 runs per game. Then you look and see they allow 4.7 RPG and it begins to make sense. Though not an absolute, anytime Cole Hamels and Aaron Harang (for now) are not pitching, the Phillies and Over have to be considered.

Oddsmakers have been on the nose about the Mets who are 15-14 OVER, as they are about pitching and timely hitting. This record only recently evened out because New York is having scoring issues and went on a 7-0 UNDER run. Mets offense will determine how to bet them on totals.

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