The LT Profits Group continue to provide profiles for every team before opening day of the 2016 season to help with your MLB picks, and today they profile the Milwaukee Brewers.
We are a bit more than four weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, which kicks off with three games Sunday, April 3rd while the rest of the league begins play Monday, April 4th, and in an attempt to assist you with your MLB picks, we are presenting team profiles for all 30 Major League Baseball teams in advance of opening day. Today we are profiling the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished in fourth place in the National League Central in 2015 at 68-94.
For starters, here is a summary of the Milwaukee betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that these stats are always for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle.
Milwaukee Brewers 2015 Betting Stats
It is hard to believe that the Brewers actually led the National League Central for much of the year just two short years ago as they regressed badly last year, especially at home where they went from having one of the better home records in baseball to going 34-47 at Miller Park in 2015, exactly matching their road record! The -20.81 units Milwaukee lost from a betting standpoint was the third worst in the majors ahead of only Oakland and Cincinnati.
Up next, we move on to the Brewers’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.
2015 Milwaukee Brewers Team Statistics
|Runs per Game||4.04||22nd|
The highlight of the Milwaukee season last year was the performance of the bullpen, but unfortunately as well as that unit performed, it did not have enough leads to protect with the offense ranked 22nd in the league in runs scored and the starting pitchers not doing the bullpen any favors either, resulting in the pen being called on very early quite often. And now Francisco Rodriguez is gone after going 38-for-40 in save chances.
2016 Milwaukee Brewers World Series Futures
The oddsmakers do not expect this season to be any different than last year with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates all expected to battle for the National League Central title once again and then the division having a severe drop to the Brewers and Reds battling for the basement. Besides Milwaukee and Cincinnati having similarly long World Series odds, the Brewers have a posted win total of 71½, negligibly ahead of the Cincinnati win total of 71.
2016 Milwaukee Brewers Batting Forecast
To give you an idea of how much the Milwaukee offense sputtered last season, the entire offense in totality produced a collective WAR that was about 1.0 higher than that of Bryce Harper all by himself! Yes, that may have been an anomaly and the Brewers do figure to be a bit better offensively this year, but by how much?
The Brewers held on to Jonathan Lucroy after he was rumored to be on the trading block, and rather surprisingly the ZiPS projections forecast him to finish with the best WAR on the team this season at 3.3, better than the 2.7 projected WAR for Ryan Braun. There is not really too much to get excited about beyond that duo though, with the possible exception of 23-year-old Domingo Santana, who projects to a breakthrough year of around 25 homers and 85 RBI.
2016 Milwaukee Brewers Pitching Forecast
Apparently, Manager Craig Counsell is not a big fan of advanced metrics, as the current plans for the Brewers are to go with Wily Peralta as the opening day starter and to have Taylor Jungmann slotted in as the fourth starter. This is despite the fact that the ZiPS projections give Jungmann the highest forecasted WAR among the starting pitchers at 2.4 while Peralta’s predicted WAR of 0.9 does not even seem rotation worthy.
Another player that the Brewers still have that was predicted to be trade bait during the off-season is reliever Will Smith, and the southpaw may now start the season as the team’s closer after the departure of Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers. He may have competition for the job however with Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel also being viable candidates.