MLB Betting: Let’s Go With The Home Chalk & Pick Yankees As Subway Series Wraps

Nathan Eovaldi

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, August 4, 2016 4:05 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 4, 2016 4:05 PM GMT

The Mets have dropped two of three to their crosstown rivals and must now try to salvage a split in tonight’s series finale. Let’s examine this matchup and cash a ticket in our MLB picks.

N.Y. Mets vs N.Y. Yankees 
The Mets have captured one of the first three games in this Subway Series which are more than I can say. As a matter of fact, I was so positive that the Metropolitans would cash in my MLB picks last night I tweeted emphatically that the MLB odds should have been -160 rather than -106. Yes, I tweeted that and am now dredging it back up when most would run as far away from that humiliation as possible after learning that the Yankees walloped the Mets 9-5.

I don’t duck for cover when I’m wrong and the reason is that this is a journey through the 2016 MLB baseball season and I have painstakingly documented my record to reflect my handicapping prowess or lack thereof. Lately, it’s been the latter but overall we are still up plenty of units and have a decent win percentage. It’s easy to gloat when you’re winning but it’s difficult to muster the courage to declare when you’re losing. Recently I have been losing but that does not make me a loser (thank you, Stuart Smalley). Let’s try to get on the winning end of this one.

 

Mets Offense in High Gear
The New York Mets are in an NL wild card chase despite the fact that their lineup is ranked dead last in team batting average and 28th in runs scored. Obviously, their pitching staff must be doing something right, and of course they are, ranked 3rd in the league with a team ERA of 3.41. But over their last four games, they have delivered the offensive production they have lacked throughout the year, averaging 5.75 runs per game despite their newly acquired slugger Jay Bruce going 0-for-8 in his short stint as a Met. Ironically, they are 2-2 over those four contests and will trust that their starter tonight is far more effective than Steven Matz was last night.

Speaking of tonight’s starter, Bartolo Colon (9-6, 3.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will take the hill for his 22nd start of the season and will try to rebound after a 7-2 loss to the Rockies in his last outing when he allowed five runs on seven hits through five full innings of work. Colon has been roughed up in three of his last five starts and it’s not a reach to say his 43-year-old body may be wearing out as the season grows long. After a blistering start, Colon saw a dramatic dip in his performances with a 5.51 ERA in July.

 

Betting Analysis
Nathan Eovaldi (8-7, 5.12 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) takes the mound for the Yankees and was last seen surrendering three runs to the Tampa Bay Rays which led to a 6-3 Yankees defeat. Eovaldi allowed only three hits in his six innings of work but two home runs off the veteran righty proved to be his undoing. However, Eovaldi has performed admirably since returning from his banishment to the bullpen where he has a 2-1 record with a 2.79 ERA in four appearances.

Despite the Mets recent offensive production, I am not convinced they can continue to pound away. Yoenis Cespedes is back on the shelf and Jay Bruce has been rendered ineffective in his two games as a Met. In addition, their starter Bartolo Colon is 5-7 with a 5.98 ERA in 18 career appearances against the Yankees.

Meanwhile, the Yankees seem to be getting into a groove despite management’s fire sale of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Ivan Nova and Carlos Beltran. Mark Teixeira finally came alive last night after a season of disappointment and the Yankees 15 runs over the last two games demonstrates the players have not yet given up on 2016, unlike the front office brass. Let’s go with the home chalk here.

 

MLB Pick: Yankees -133 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle 
Swinger’s MLB Record: 58-33, +23.99 units

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Check Out Our Coverage For Game 1Game 2 & Game 3 Of Subway Series

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