MLB Betting: Huge Underdog Value In Dodgers vs. Padres Game

Jason Lake

Sunday, May 22, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

Sunday, May. 22, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

After going deep into extras Saturday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers are big road favorites on the MLB odds board for Sunday's matinee versus the San Diego Padres.

Some things take longer than others. Saturday's game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres took 11 innings, but the Padres ended it with that most dramatic of plays: the walk-off walk. Okay, not so dramatic, but it gave San Diego (19-25, +0.96 units) a much-needed 3-2 victory, pulling off the upset as a +153 home dog. Yes, the Padres are profitable this year. The Dodgers (21-23, –10.25 units), not so much.

Los Angeles has a very good chance of getting one back Sunday afternoon (4:40 p.m. ET) when they send Kenta Maeda to the mound against Colin Rea. The Dodgers are –170 faves on the MLB odds board as we go to press. But look at that sea of red they're swimming in. Is this team worth all that chalk?


Wheel of Fish
Not according to the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight. They project Los Angeles to win Sunday's game 56 percent of the time; plug that into our SBR Betting Odds Converter, and you only get –127 out the other end. Holy doodle. That's a mighty big premium to pay if you want to bet on the Dodgers – or against the Padres, as the case may be.

Don't blame Maeda (3.66 FIP). He's done his part since making the trip over from Japan, where he excelled in eight seasons with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. Mmmmm... carp. Actually, maybe Maeda set those expectations too high after allowing just one earned run in his first four MLB starts combined. He's given up four runs in each of his last two abbreviated starts, dropping the Dodgers to 3-5 and 3.50 units in the red.

As for Rea (4.66 FIP), he's No. 8 on the money charts with 5.44 units in profit on a team record of 5-3. Not bad for someone with just three quality starts. One of those was a 5-2 win against the Dodgers (–188 at home) on April 30, although it was Ross Stripling on the hill for Los Angeles. He's no Maeda, but then again, Maeda has a .256 BABIP with 82.6 percent of runners left on base. Regression + heavy chalk = fade opportunity.


Fantasy Corner
Having said that, Maeda blanked the Padres 7-0 in his MLB debut, so maybe you should avoid putting any Padres in your fantasy lineup. Anyone want to pick up Dodgers 2B Chase Utley (.812 OPS)? He seems to have his game back on track, and he's only owned in 19.6 percent of ESPN leagues at press time.

So we've got a bit of a conundrum with our MLB picks. It might seem tempting to bail and go with the UNDER on the posted total of 7.5 runs, but Petco Park isn't the same hitters graveyard it used to be, posting a .957 park factor for runs this year. Let's stick with fading the Dodgers, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free MLB Pick: Padres +153
Best Line Offered: at Intertops
Record: 8-7 ML, 1-0 Totals (+2.24 units)

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