MLB Betting: How To Wager Baseball's Best and Worst Teams

Doug Upstone

Saturday, April 16, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 16, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

The baseball season is not even two weeks old and chasm between the haves and have not's is almost as wide as the Rockets/Warriors series odds. Sometimes that's just betting baseball.

The question is after a few series, should you go with the flow and back the hot clubs and bet against the weak teams or are either due for a turnaround?  Every situation is different and we will examine the possibilities for MLB picks.


Are the Chicago Cubs and Washington Really This Good?
Just before game time on Friday, Joe Maddon's confident and ultra-talent team is living up to all the preseason hype at 8-1 and is pounding opponents into submission, winning by ridiculous 4.8 runs a game. An indication of how good this team is they swept Cincinnati after they started 5-2 and the Los Angeles Angels are 5-2 since dropping first two games. Already we are seeing inflated lines on the Cubs, making them a run line play at best at over -200. Chicago becomes a little harder to back with trips to St. Louis and Cincinnati, but by and large is worth using against the MLB odds.

Washington is 7-1 and has feasted on not so hot division foes, but to their credit, at least they are doing so compared to essentially the same schedule last year. The Nationals were arguably baseball's biggest underachievers a year ago and with less pressure and a different manager, Washington has shown more confidence. They open a 10-game road trip and are unlikely to keep playing this well, but since games are against Philadelphia, Miami and Minnesota, a profit sure appears likely.


Are Minnesota and Atlanta Really This Bad?
In the case of the Braves, the answer is a resounding YES! Atlanta was forecasted to win 65.5 games at Bookmaker this season coming off a 67-95 campaign. It is too bad Freddie Freeman is stuck playing with the Braves. With a number of offseason moves, Atlanta has stockpiled young talent and draft choices, however, most of those players are at the very least two years away if not more. Having faced Washington and St. Louis has only made matters worse. They should pick up a victory in Miami, but after that it is the Dodgers (3 games), Mets (6), Boston (home and home for 4) and Cubs (3). Not many victories when being outscored by 4.6 RPG.

Remember when Minnesota got off to terrific start last season and played well enough to win 83 games despite underwhelming talent? This would seem to be the baseball gods way of balancing the books this year. The Twins offense is the culprit, averaging 1.6 RPG and consider, they have yet to score as many as four times in any contest! The fact is Minnesota is not this dreadful and while they might not be a .500 team having to crawl out this deep well at 0-9, the offense will come around the pitching is at least adequate. After Twinkies finally post a winner, they become a 50-50 wager with the pressure off for the short term.


What About the Starts for Baltimore and Chicago White Sox?
The Orioles 7-2 beginning to the season is based on better than presumed starting pitching, a fabulous bullpen and hitting home runs. Given the five starters, at some point they will regress to the norm most likely, the bullpen might end up a strength, but will wear down some with more use. The Birds are averaging 1.66 long balls a game and while they might be potent all season, that number will come down. Would not be shocked to see Baltimore at .500 by mid-May.

The White Sox 7-2 start is impressive since they have only played twice on the South Side. Chicago was one of my Over bets on season win totals, liking their underrated starting pitching and figured the offense was so bad last year they could only go up. Are the Pale Hose this good, probably not, nonetheless, they are no worse than 50-50 wager the next few weeks.

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