MLB Betting: Greinke & Diamondbacks Almost Unbeatable at Home

Doug Upstone

Saturday, July 1, 2017 3:48 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 1, 2017 3:48 PM UTC

Colorado ended their eight-game losing streak last night with the return of their ace Jon Gray. This evening, the Rockies will attempt to extend Arizona's losing ways with another triumph.

The Diamondbacks have now dropped three straight and will turn to their top pitcher Zack Greinke to get back on winning track in trying to not fall much further behind the scalding Los Angeles Dodgers.

After a really hot stretch, my MLB picks have been like these two clubs of late and I will try to heat back up and better recent 22-16 mark.


Pitching Matchup - Chatwood vs. Greinke

In the words of his manager Bud Black, Tyler Chatwood's (6-8, 4.32 ERA) season has been "variable". One aspect of Chatwood's game that has not changed much is that he pitches much better on the road than at Coors Field. His ERA is 2.91 when outside of Colorado, which is shocking compared to 6.39 when at home. However, one aspect home or away that is holding the right-hander back from more success is handing out free passes. In just over 92 innings, Chatwood already has 50 walks surrendered. His .232 batting average allowed is on pace for a career-best, thus, if he cleans up the walks, he could enjoy a big second half. The 27-year old is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA vs. Arizona.

Zack Greinke (9-4, 3.08) might have had a few problems with focus earlier in his career, yet he always knew how to pitch. In spite of losing a few MPH on the fastball at 33, Greinke now changes speeds expertly and has a variety of curves to choose from and has 116 strikeouts in 102 1/3 innings. Last year now looks like an anomaly for the right-hander and the .225 batting average he's permitted in 2017 is 23 points below career norms. Greinke is 13-9 with a 4.11 ERA against Colorado.


Both Offenses Looking to Ignite

Last night's six runs for the Rockies was only the second time in nine tries they reached that figure and it was enough to get them back in the win column. With so many young pitchers on the Colorado staff, the offense has to help their teammates out by scoring. No team is going to hang six or more runs on the scoreboard nightly, but if the Rocks can return to grabbing frequent early leads like they did before the losing streak, their pitchers can relax more.

Arizona's lineup card is going through something similar as tonight's opponent with 10 total runs in their past three trips to the ballpark. It happens, even to clubs averaging 6.1 runs per contest at home like the D-Backs and the players have to keep grinding and hope a Paul Goldschmidt or Jake Lamb can provide a spark.


Betting Odds, Head to Head and Bullpen Numbers

The MLB odds have Arizona as a -155 home favorite and the total has slipped to 8.5. The Snakes have slithered to a 13-10 advantage at Chase Field since 2015 over Colorado and the OVER is 13-7-3 in that time span. Both bullpens are in the Top 3 in save percentage in the NL, (Rockies 1st and D-Backs 3rd), however, Arizona's pen has a 3.33 ERA and the Rocks are at 4.43.


The Winner Is...

Throughout his career, Greinke has been money at home and the team's he pitched for in the majors are 51-21 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Colorado does present a challenge with 26-19 road record and Chatwood's success away from Coors, nonetheless; Greinke and the Diamondbacks are 8-1 in downtown Phoenix this season and that is too good to pass up for this handicapper.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona -155Best Betting Line: at Heritage

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