MLB Betting: Good Pitching Expected To Keep The Under In Nationals vs. Rockies

Jon Gray

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 17, 2016 1:28 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2016 1:28 PM UTC

Whenever there is a game in Colorado you can always expect a high total in MLB Odds. Nationals visit Rockies on closer look the line seems a little bit surprising considering the pitchers starting today. 

Odds Overview
Oddsmakers and Sportsbooks have set the total line for this game between Washington and Colorado at 10.5 across the board. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back under the total of 10.5 like at Heritage +105 on their MLB Odds. For me, this is simply a play on the pitching matchup and although we can expect these teams to score I think over 10 is a bit too much in this matchup.

Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg gets the start for Washington and comes in with a 3.07 ERA and 1.04 whip but has even better numbers on the road this season. He has been arguably the best road pitcher in baseball this season with an 8-0 record along with a 1.70 ERA and batters hitting just .192 against him. For many pitchers though when they come to Colorado those kinds of numbers can be thrown out the window because of the atmosphere. However, Strasburg has not only pitched very well against Colorado the past few seasons going 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA in five starts he has also pitched well in Colorado. Although his numbers go up slightly at this park they are very respectable as his last two attempts to pitch in Coors field have produced a 2.92 ERA while allowing only four earned runs in just over 12 innings off of six hits. 

At the plate, Washington is one of the better hitting teams in the National League and I do expect them to score today considering they been pretty hot at the plate their last several games averaging over five runs per game in their last five. Still, like most major league teams they can struggle at times and today, they're facing a pitcher who has shown the ability to pitch very well at Coors field despite his recent struggles.

Colorado Rockies
Jon Gray comes in with a 4.55 ERA and 1.23 whip but has allowed an eye-popping 14 earned runs in his last two starts over eight innings. Things have gone south for the young 24-year-old very quickly over the last two games one at home and one in Philadelphia. However, he has shown the ability time and time again to keep teams to minimal damage in Colorado. Prior to his last two horrendous starts, he allowed just eight earned runs total in his previous five starts in Colorado spanning over 30 innings. Because of his previous good outings, I believe this puts him in a good bounce back spot to come in and have a quality start today even pitching against a decently hot hitting team in Washington in Colorado. 

Offensively the Rockies have shown time and time again that hitting at home is really beneficial. They lead the National League in pretty much every offensive category at home. Just like Washington though they have also struggled a little bit at times, even at home. As well, like Washington I expect them to score today but I also expect Strasburg to keep the damage to a minimum.

July record: 13-9
August record: 7-5

Free MLB Pick: Under 10.5 +105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage / at 5Dimes

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