MLB Betting: Friday's Baseball Picks of the Day

Joe Catalano

Friday, July 5, 2013 1:12 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 5, 2013 1:12 PM UTC

It may be the end of the work week, but the weekend series are only beginning! Here's our picks for today.

It’s time to create some post-4th of July fireworks in the bank as I’ve found some great value and opportunity for Friday’s MLB picks of the Day.

For more MLB betting info, don't forget to check out our Daily Pitching Report!

Baltimore Orioles (48-38) at New York Yankees (46-39)

After pure domination over the Minnesota Twins, the Yankees got their “mojo” back and now it’s time for a tougher test against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has passed New York in the division standings and currently lead the Yanks in this year’s season series, 6-3.

Super Nova?

The Yanks will start Ivan Nova (2-2, 4.63) and this is a pitcher that hasn’t been the same since his 16-4 year in 2011.

In a short sampling this season, Nova has allowed opposing hitters to hit .316 off of him. With a lineup of guys like Nick Markakis, Manny Machado (leader in doubles), and Chris Davis (MLB home run leader), Nova needs a huge performance to keep pace with such an overpowering Orioles offense.

Nova has settled down in his last few starts. In his last 3 starts, he’s allowed 6 runs in 17 2/3 innings.

He’ll also need the Yankee “no-namers” to provide run support. Thankfully for the Yankees, Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells have woken up. Ichiro has been much more productive out of the leadoff spot.

The Orioles are most likely going to get a decent performance out of starter Miguel Gonzalez. In his last 3 starts, Gonzalez has given up 3 runs in each of those ball games. Nova is clearly the “X-Factor” in this ball game and the Yanks have a definite edge not having to play in Camden Yards.


MLB Pick: Yankees Even at Bet365

(This is super value for a team of the caliber of the Yankees at home. I really like this sports pick and if you can find a better value that would be an added plus)


The Reach of the Day

Miami Marlins (32-52) at St. Louis Cardinals (50-34)

Role Reversal

St. Louis is obviously the better ball club, but haven’t been playing like it as they’ve lost the top spot in the National League Central Division. On the other hand, Miami is playing much better than their record, having won 8 out of their last 10 games.

I will state to you that I like the Marlins in this game, but you must look for the best odds possible. At the time of this writing, MLB odds list Miami as a +170 underdog and I expected +200, therefore we’ll have to keep an eye on that.

The Cards start Jake Westbrook (4-3, 2.95) who is coming off of a really poor performance against Oakland in which he allowed 6 runs on 10 hits in just 4 innings. It’s his 2nd consecutive poor start in a row. The Marlins start Jacob Turner (2-0, 1.76) and he’s coming off of a complete game win, allowing just 1 run against the San Diego Padres. In his last 16 innings, Turner has allowed just 2 runs.

The Marlins can’t match St. Louis’ offense, but are quite capable with guys like Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Ruggiano. Westbrook better not take this team for granted or they’ll embarrass him, sending the Cards farther back into the standings.

I like Miami in this spot. If momentum plays out, the Marlins should give the Cardinals trouble and the price is certainly right.


MLB Pick: Miami +160 at William Hill

(Also look for better value if you can find it)

Good luck, everyone!

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