MLB Betting Formula: High WHIP + High ERA = Play Against

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 7:40 PM GMT

Here we focus on pitching stats that will help you determine which starting pitchers you have to fade when you approach baseball games so you can win big with your MLB picks. 

On Thursday, May 28, 2015, I authored an article in which I concluded that there is a strong, positive correlation between a WHIP of 1.10 or less and a team’s positive TRGS for that starting pitcher. The final conclusions were that all starting pitchers in 2015 MLB who, with a minimum of 3 starts, have a WHIP of 1.10 or lower resulted in a TRGS of 138-67, good for 67.3% winners. 

As promised, we will now explore the negative end of the spectrum for some revelations about the TRGS of MLB teams whose starting pitcher has a WHIP at the upper end of the spectrum. 

To briefly review the concept, please note that the WHIP is a pitcher’s walks + hits per innings pitched. Clearly, a lower number is better, as it’s tough to score if you don’t get on base! 

The numbers for today’s article are through Saturday, May 30, 2015. Much like last week, our chart will include the pitcher, his WHIP, the TRGS, the starter’s personal W/L record, and the ERA. All pitchers must have a minimum of 3 starts. 

 

Pitcher

WHIP

TRGS

W/L

ERA

Fiers

1.55

3-7

1-5

4.53

Teheran

1.56

6-4

4-2

4.91

Alvarez

1.57

0-4

0-4

6.45

Eovaldi

1.57

6-4

4-1

4.40

Garza

1.58

3-7

2-7

6.00

Niese

1.58

3-7

3-5

4.42

Walker

1.59

3-7

2-5

6.18

Williams

1.59

4-6

3-4

5.33

Latos

1.59

3-6

1-4

6.12

Nolasko

1.61

5-1

5-1

5.12

Rodon

1.61

3-1

1-0

3.63

Worley

1.62

3-4

2-3

4.38

Billingsley

1.63

1-2

0-2

6.75

J De La Rosa

1.63

2-4

1-2

6.51

Marquis

1.65

4-5

3-4

6.46

Guthrie

1.66

6-3

4-3

6.70

Masterson

1.67

3-4

2-2

6.37

Graveman

1.68

4-2

2-2

5.79

Duffy

1.70

4-4

2-3

5.87

S Gonzalez

1.71

2-2

2-1

6.88

Strasburg

1.72

3-7

3-5

6.55

Capuano

1.74

0-3

0-3

6.40

Butler

1.76

5-5

3-5

4.22

Lyons

1.77

1-2

0-0

5.54

Cahill

1.78

0-3

0-3

8.03

Matzek

1.82

3-2

2-1

4.09

Detwiler

1.84

1-6

0-5

6.95

B Norris

1.87

2-4

1-4

9.88

Buchanan

1.91

0-5

0-5

8.76

Andriese

2.06

2-1

0-1

6.75

Wojciechowski

2.25

2-1

0-1

9.75

House

2.53

0-4

0-4

13.15

 

Please note that several of these starters are either injured or have pitched their way out of the rotation. Yet many of them may return at some point in the season, so make sure you always include them in this list. Once again, I will save you the tedium of adding up the numbers and drawing the conclusions.         

 

- 87-127 TRGS all 2015 MLB starters with a ≥ 1.55 WHIP            

- 55-93 record for the above starters if their ERA is 5.00 or higher

 

As I began to explore the complete list of ranked WHIPs, I was able to discover that the ineffectiveness of these starting pitchers continues all the way down to a WHIP of 1.40 or more. Here are the conclusions (unlisted due to space restrictions) whose WHIP is 1.40 to 1.54.

 

- 84-132 2015 MLB starters with a WHIP of 1.40-1.54

- 34-55 record for the above starters if their ERA is 5.00 or higher

 

The results of this article clearly show there is a direct correlation between a poor WHIP of 1.40 or higher and a negative TRGS. This can be enhanced by looking at starters whose ERA is 5.00 or higher before you place your MLB picks

In the weeks ahead, I will be exploring other successful ways to use the WHIP when using other areas of wagering against the MLB odds, such as run lines and 5 IP.