MLB Betting: Final Wagers as Season Starts

Doug Upstone

Friday, March 28, 2014 5:24 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 28, 2014 5:24 PM UTC

Come on; don’t bust my chops, I know the baseball season has “officially” already started! Nonetheless, here are my MLB picks that are relatable to the other 28 MLB teams.

Play On Teams for Season Win Totals

L.A. Angels O85.5– I expect to get some heat for this choice, but part of the reason is both Oakland and Texas are weaker than they were at the start of spring training due to injuries and the team from Anaheim has the best player in baseball in Mike Trout and the overall supporting cast is better. I believe the pitching staff will be better than expected with back of the rotation at least average and the offense will carry a greater share of the load, with the Halos hitting 88 wins and being one of my MLB picks.

Kansas City O82 – The Royals were in contention for the wild card and I see them jetting by Cleveland. K.C. has newfound confidence based on their play from last season and that maturity carries over into 2014. Of course having 19 games each against Minnesota and the White Sox also helps their cause. 

Milwaukee O79.5 – As mentioned in my Cactus League reports for SBR, I like the starting staff for the Brewers, they are solid up the middle except for second base and I am convinced Ryan Braun will put up MVP-like numbers this season. If Khris Davis and Aramis Ramirez have good years and closer Jim Henderson does what I expect, Milwaukee beats the betting odds and closes in on 82-83 victories.

Pittsburgh U83 – I’m playing this based on what one of my pals saw in Florida this spring. He told me the Pirates are basically the same team as last year, with several everyday players at or near their prime years. The pitching staff has several good arms and this team gained the confidence of finally having a winning season for the first time in two decades and beats in his words, “a stupidly low number”.

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Play Against Teams for Season Win Totals

Seattle U81 – The Mariners might have added Robinson Cano and Corey Hart, but this will not be close to enough offense to offset deficiencies at other positions. Cano will not have a jet stream out to right-center like at Yankee Stadium and he will be a poorer fantasy choice. Hart’s knees are an issue and so will be his slowing bat. The starting pitching beyond King Felix is not in place, which leads to a losing season. Seahawks training camp starts in August!

Chicago White Sox U74.5 – While the White Sox have made general improvements in changing the roster, is this team really ready to improve 12 games from last season? Not from what I have seen. All their new players would have to enjoy breakout seasons to overcome suspect pitching and this seems like a reach versus the MLB odds.

Chicago Cubs 71Easily the worst team I saw in the Cactus League. They start the season a weaker club than a year ago and their one quality starter, Jeff Samardzija, is perpetually on the trading block for a prospects. The outfield is arguably the worst in baseball (and really not that big of an argument) and Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo are not locks to be stars. I would think every MLB baseball handicapper would be forecasting 90+ losses on the North Side.

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2014 Baseball Betting Tip – Ride Streaks
Because baseball is played daily, teams go on winning and losing streaks. It has long been advocated to ride the streaks, but one question most bettors have is when to jump on board one of these occurrences. 

I talked to my good friend Sal who lives in Henderson, NV, who is a professional gambler and asked him the best way to wager on streaks. His advice is to jump on at three or four games, whichever you feel comfortable. He explained the one caveat is it has to be over two different series, since any team can be hot or cold versus the same opponent. Facing two different clubs is a truer test of any streak in his opinion.

He also added not to play these blindly, because the Miami Marlins will probably win four straight, but if their next game would be at Dodger Stadium against Clayton Kershaw, while the Fish could win, the odds are stacked against them.

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