MLB Betting Edge in the Starting Pitching Department 8/20

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, August 20, 2014 12:34 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2014 12:34 PM UTC

Our resident sports betting odds expert analyzes a couple of starting pitching matchups tonight in his quest for MLB wagering value. Find who has the edge between Reds vs. Cardinals & Tigers vs. Rays. 

Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) 7:15 PM ET
The Reds starter Johnny Cueto has gone a perfect 5-0 against the money line in his last 5-starts while posting an excellent 1.62 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The Reds ace is 17-9 against the money this season with a terrific performance line of a 2.06 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Cueto has seen his last 3-starts versus St. Louis all go under the total while posting a stellar 2.37 ERA and better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

The Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has seen 7 of his last 8-starts go under the total. In those 8-outings the Cardinals hurler has posted a superb 1.97 ERA. Lynn’s pitching statistics against the Reds send a bit of a mixed signal, and borders on deceiving. He’s gone 7-1 against the money in his career versus Cincinnati despite posting a lofty 4.80 ERA in those appearances. As a matter of fact, since 9/5/2013 he’s faced the Reds 3-times, and has posted a large 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in those outings.


Advantage: I like the dominating form that Johnny Cueto has displayed not only recently, but for the majority of the 2014 season. Lance Lynn has been rock solid this season. However, the Cardinals right-hander isn’t the imposing pitcher as his adversary tonight, and his recent struggles against the Reds leads to some concern. I’m giving the starting pitching betting edge to Johnny Cueto of the Reds over Lance Lynn of the Cardinals.

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Detroit Tigers (Porcello) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) 7:10 PM ET
The Tigers starter Rick Porcello has seen his last 3-starts at Tropicana Field go under the total, while posting a very good 3.10 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP in those outings. The Tigers veteran right-hander has gone 8-5 against the money on the road this season with a stellar 2.62 ERA. He’s coming off a shaky start versus Seattle last Friday, but still has managed to post a shining 2.57 ERA, and better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio over his last 6-starts. Porcello has walked just 2-men in 28.0 innings over his last 4-starts.

The Rays starter Jake Odorizzi has been a very profitable 5-1 in his last 6 against the money with a 3.06 ERA, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. In 13-starts at home in 2014, he’s gone 6-7 against the money, with a more than respectable 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. This will be his first career start against the Tigers.


Advantage: Rick Porcello has had a history of bouncing back from a bad performance with a solid outing throughout his MLB career. I also like the experience factor of Porcello in this one over the youngster Odorizzi. Especially in light of the urgency the Tigers need to start performing with, if they hope to be part of the 2014 postseason picture. My MLB betting edge in the starting pitching department this evening goes to Rick Porcello. I'll take advantage of this with a MLB pick at Pinnacle Sports.

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