MLB Betting: Cubs Have In Hendricks Betting Value For Series Opener vs. Marlins

Mark Lathrop

Monday, August 1, 2016 2:48 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 1, 2016 2:48 PM UTC

Both of these teams are coming off of walk-off wins on Sunday night, yet our MLB handicapper thinks only one team's momentum is worth backing on Monday night.

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs
As I write this up, the Cubs have used every player on their roster in their Sunday night game against the Mariners, so keep in mind that their bullpen will be taxed coming into this matchup versus the Miami Marlins. With the starting matchup more important than normal, the Cubs find themselves as -175 favorites at BetOnline. No O/U total has been posted as of late Sunday night.

The Cubs start this series with the Marlins with Kyle Hendricks on the mound, and he has followed up a strong 2015 campaign with an even better 2016. On the season over 116.2 innings pitched, Hendricks has put up a 2.39 ERA, 103/32 K/BB rate, 1.05 WHIP, and .210 batting average allowed. He should be glad that he is pitching at home, because his stats so far at Wrigley in 2016 have been off the charts. On the year, Hendricks has posted a 1.36 ERA, 59/10 K/BB rate, and .196 batting average allowed. Hendricks has a 1.07 ERA in July, so he’s just getting stronger as the year has progressed.

Adam Conley gets the start in this one and is coming off of a pretty good stretch, allowing 2 earned runs or less in five starts straight. The kicker has been that Conley has had a hard time pitching deep into games, but Miami has a bullpen sporting a 3.56 ERA so the problem has been mitigated somewhat. On the year, Conley has compiled a 3.38 ERA, 112/47 K/BB rate, 1.30 WHIP, and .237 batting average allowed. Now, Conley only sees left-handed batters about 25% of the time, but they have been serious trouble for him this year. Lefties are batting a strong .290 against Conley this year while righties are being limited to a .220 batting average. Expect the lineup to be stacked with left-handed batters as much as the Cubs can do on Monday night.

Side note from a Mariners fan, when you lose by allowing an opposing pitcher to sacrifice a runner in from third base in extra innings - it is time to sell at the deadline. Cubs win in the 12th inning coming into this one in pretty amazing fashion. For the Cubs that is! While this game was played late, there is just something about an extra inning win with pitchers hitting, playing the outfield, etc., that can really pull a team together. At 22 games over .500, Joe Maddon must have these guys believing in the process big time.

There are few times that I like to lay the kind of chalk that we are talking about here with the Cubs, but Hendricks’ record at home has just been a game changer. Miami will also come into this game on a high, walking off the St. Louis Cardinals in the 9th inning Sunday night as well. But they have to get on a plane and fly across the country to face one of the top pitchers in the country.

I’m looking for the Cubs to throw every left-hander they have on the roster into the lineup on Monday, giving them a distinct advantage while Kyle Hendricks won’t have that split to take advantage of. Hate to do it, but the MLB Odds value here is to lay the chalk and take the Cubs at -173 at BetOnline as one of your Monday night MLB Picks.

2016 YTD MLB: 41-24-3, +15.71 Units
Free MLB Pick: Cubs -172 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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